Where next for the Barclays share price, after Q1 fails to inspire?

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The Barclays (LSE: BARC) share price dipped Tuesday morning (28 April), even though the bank “delivered a return on tangible equity (RoTE) of 13.5%, announced a £500m buyback and reiterated all 2026 and 2028 targets” with first-quarter results.

The shares have backed off 16% since February’s highs. But we’re still looking at a 44% gain in 12 months — and 125% over five years. So what do Barclays shares look like as an investment now, after what seems like another positive set of results?

“Another solid quarter”

CEO C. S. Venkatakrishnan spoke of “double-digit returns in all our businesses“, despite impairments and a one-off charge in the quarter. In fact, his statement deserves fuller attention:

Top line income grew 6% year-on-year, driven by broad based divisional performance including in the Investment Bank, where we generated over £4bn quarterly income for the first time. The cost:income ratio improved to 56% and earnings per share (EPS) grew by 8% to 14.1p. Our capital position remains robust with a 14.1% common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio and we are announcing a £500m buyback today.

He concluded by reiterating the board’s confidence in Barclays meeting all its financial targets. So why the muted response from investors?

Diversity and risk

Diversification usually reduces risk. But in this case, compared to other UK high street banks, it exposes Barclays to more risks in two other areas of its business. One is investment banking, which does seem to be largely behind this impressive quarter. That can be volatile, even if it can offer greater profit potential.

And there’s international risk too, which solely UK-focused banks don’t face. Then again, it’s not like Barclays’ domestic banking hit a tough spot — not with UK income up 9% in the quarter.

But, total operating expenses rose 4% year on year, which perhaps takes a bit of the edge off the positivity. And do investors fear further damage after £0.8bn in impairment charges in the quarter? I expect so. But I can still see a bright future.

Barclays share price

City brokers were solidly positive about Barclays before these results, setting a consensus price target of 530p. That’s 25% up on the price at the time of writing, and nicely above the stock’s 52-week high from earlier in the year.

We have to wait and see if there are any updates now. But if existing analyst forecasts prove accurate, I could see that target easily exceeded — eventually.

Even current-year projections put the stock on a 2026 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of only 8.1. And the bank just told us it expects to hit its targets. Looking out to 2028, we could see the P/E drop to just six.

Follow the cash

I think more focus on dividends might have boosted long-term confidence better — currently the forecast yield is only 2%. And I suspect we’re in for a few years of uncertainty over where Barclay’s divisional profits are going to come from. So we might see more share price weakness.

But is Barclays one to consider for long-term investors? I reckon it has to be, yes.

The post Where next for the Barclays share price, after Q1 fails to inspire? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

More reading

• How could the latest Barclays share buybacks impact investors?
• Barclays shares just fell 3% after Q1 results. Is this a buying opportunity?
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• Here’s how Barclays shares could climb another 40%
• 5 years ago Barclays shares cost just 181p! Are they still a buy at today’s 434p?

Alan Oscroft has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Barclays Plc. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

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