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Will we see a stock market crash this month? Itâs always possible. Shares can crash at any time, so it makes sense to be prepared.
Sometimes, a crash comes out of the blue. Thatâs pretty much what happened on Black Monday in 1987, when automated trading strategies turned a dip into something far more dramatic. The 2020 pandemic plunge came swiftly too.
At other times, thereâs a slow, creeping build-up. I remember the mounting sense of dread before the 2008 financial crisis. Plenty of investors are feeling that unease today. Politics is pushing to the extremes, US-China tensions are rising, and a glance at the gold price shows how nervous markets are. So yes, we could get a crash in February.
Nobody can predict a market correction
On the other hand, we could have had a crash at almost any point over the last few years, but didnât. Investors who parked their wealth in cash will be kicking themselves, with the S&P 500 delivering double-digit gains for three years in a row. When they hear itâs returned double digits in six of the past seven years, they may need a second pillow.
Second-guessing market movements is a mugâs game. Until recently, many commentators had written off the FTSE 100. Last year it jumped 20%, with dividends on top. The average cash account paid roughly 3.5%.
That said, there are still genuine reasons to worry. We donât yet know how artificial intelligence will play out. Will it be the productivity miracle weâve been waiting for, or a terrifying bubble? Nobody knows.
It’s complex. AI could boost productivity by allowing companies to slash headcounts, lifting margins and profits. But if unemployment rises as a result, the knock-on effects could be ugly, hitting consumer stocks and even banks if debt impairments increase.
I’m keen to buy Barclays
I like to keep some cash in my trading account to take advantage of any crash or correction. And I know exactly what Iâd buy first: FTSE 100 bank Barclays (LSE: BARC).
Its shares have had a spectacular run, up 265% over five years and 65% over the past 12 months. That also makes me wary. I dread piling into runaway stocks just as the wheels come off.
Banks have enjoyed a golden period as higher interest rates widened net interest margins, but that could fade if base rates are cut further, as expected.
So if we did get a market wobble and Barclays shares pulled back, Iâd happily step in at a lower valuation. But like I said, nobody knows if that dip will come. The shares still look reasonable value on a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3, and the board plans to return £10bn to shareholders through dividends and buybacks between 2024 and 2026. If I wait, Iâll miss my share.
Nobody knows whether markets will crash in February, but sitting on my hands just in case means missing opportunities today. Barclays could get more expensive.
Thereâs a simple way around this. Buy shares with a long-term view. Over time, that strategy should beat cash by a wide margin. Barclays is still worth considering, despite its success. And if the market does plunge, investors can always buy more at the lower price.
The post Here’s why I’m not panicking about a stock market crash in February appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.
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Harvey Jones has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Barclays Plc. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.
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