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Turkey’s election on Sunday showed that public confidence in the country’s electoral system remains strong and that president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is still a powerful political force, despite failing to secure victory in the first round.
A runoff is likely to be held on May 28 after preliminary results showed Mr. Erdogan with 49.4 percent of the vote and his main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, with 45 percent, according to the state-run Anadolu news agency. Mr. Erdogan, who has led Turkey for 20 years, appears in a strong position to emerge with another five years.
The election is being watched closely around the world for how it could determine the future of a key NATO ally with diverse diplomatic and economic ties across the continent. Of particular interest is the fate of Mr. Erdogan, who often annoys and annoys Western partners, including the United States, and faces discontent amid high inflation and the damage caused by an earthquake in February that killed more than 50,000 in southern Turkey.
Before the vote, most opinion polls suggested a slim lead for Mr. Kilicdaroglu, the joint candidate of a newly formed alliance of six opposition parties. But early results show Mr Erdogan’s appeal and influence.
Here are some key takeaways:
Turkey’s first runoff
This is the first election in Turkish history where no presidential candidate has won a majority in the first round. This opens a tricky two-week window during which candidates will go all out to attract more voters to their camps.
Sunday’s election is the country’s second since a 2017 referendum backed by Mr Erdogan that changed Turkey from a parliamentary to a presidential system. Mr Erdogan won the last two presidential contests, in 2014 and 2018, outright and by significant margins.
However, he could not do this this time making sure that he had lost support.
Erdogan has the edge
Mr. Erdogan appears to be superior to Mr. Kilicdaroglu, just shy of the majority. The elimination of the third candidate, Sinan Ogan, resulted in 5.2 percent of voters who voted for him, many of them from the right, up for grabs. Most of them tend to vote for Mr. Erdogan.
In the run-up to the election, Mr. Erdogan freely spent state resources to improve the chances, raising civil servant salaries and the national minimum wage and freeing up other government spending in an effort to insulate people from the direct effects of high inflation. They can implement other measures between current and runoff.
Also helping Mr Erdogan make his case was the party’s strong showing in Sunday’s parliamentary elections, which took place at the same time.
Early results suggested that Mr Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party and its allies would retain a majority in the 600-seat Parliament. That would allow Mr Erdogan to argue that he needs to win to avoid a divided government that could hamper the efficient functioning of the country.
For his part, Mr Kilicdaroglu had predicted that he would win in the runoff, telling supporters early Monday: “We will definitely win and bring democracy to this country.”
Turkish confidence in elections remains high
Across Turkey and in Turkish communities abroad, the majority of the 64 million eligible voters cast their votes. Some endured long lines and returned to earthquake-ravaged neighborhoods to do what they saw as their national duty.
Although the Supreme Electoral Council, which oversees the election, has not yet released official numbers, Anadolu reported that voter turnout exceeded 88 percent. That is higher than the 66.6 percent turnout in the 2020 presidential election in the United States.
Such high numbers are not uncommon in Turkey.
In the last presidential and parliamentary elections, in 2018, about 85 percent of voters voted. And since 1983, participation in any election – including mayor and city council – has never fallen below 74 percent.
Many political scientists do not consider Turkey to be a pure democracy, mainly because of the great power wielded by the president and his ability to shape the political field before elections.
But Turks still take elections seriously. That includes Mr. Erdogan, who told supporters early Monday that he was prepared to face a runoff if necessary.
“In political life, I always respect your decisions,” he said. “I expect the same democratic maturity from everyone.”
Nationalism seems to be winning
Turkish voters may not prioritize foreign policy at the ballot box, but Mr. Erdogan’s decision to ramp up his nationalist rhetoric during the campaign appears to have paid off, both for him and for his conservative parliamentary alliance.
During the campaign, Mr Erdogan had a warship dock in central Istanbul for voters. He increased his criticism of the United States, even admitting on election night that President Biden was seeking to overthrow him.
Mr Erdogan and members of his party have also openly accused the opposition of collaborating with terrorists as they receive support from Turkey’s main pro-Kurdish party. Turkish nationalists often accuse Kurdish politicians of supporting or collaborating with Kurdish militants who have been at war with the Turkish state for decades.
Mr. Ogan, the candidate in third place, also spoke about prioritizing the way to send home the million Syrian refugees in Turkey and criticized the opposition coalition through Kurdish support. In the runoff, the candidate who more effectively supports the nationalist position can take more than Mr. Ogan’s supporters.
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