2023 presidential elections pollsters and the risk of post-election violence, By Gbemisola Animasawun

Introduction

Polls can be done in a democratic way, they give everyone an equal chance to be heard…

The fact is that there are many errors that can be collected in a single poll,… which can have a big impact on the polarized electorate.

The 2011 election was the best and the most violent.

Although the sixth presidential election in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic is scheduled to be held on February 25, 2023, at the best of times Nigerians are patient and resilient as they suffer from the actions and inactions of the government. Despite these signs, political party campaigns continue with headaches like violence, assassinations, denial of public facilities to the opposition, abuse of social media for misinformation, amplification of voices through substance in the campaign, hate speeches and even disrespect for the spirit and letter of the Peace Agreement. Unfortunately, in six geo-political zones, the victims of pre-election violence have been counted.

As election day approaches, this piece examines the phenomenon of pre-election polling as it has implications for post-election violence and the legitimacy of the 2023 elections.

Indeed, a known cause of post-election violence is the violent expression of disappointment by supporters who are convinced that their candidate can only lose because of fraud or electoral fraud.

Recent events in the United States on January 6, 2020, and January 8, 2023, and historically in Nigeria in 1964/1965, 1983 and 2011 witnessed this phenomenon. In all these cases, the the purpose from the spontaneous violence that successfully negated the expectations of the followers who made them believe that the candidate they liked was rigged out.

Pre-Election Polls in the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Race

As a feature of modern democracy, pre-election polls are respected scientific tools that are free from intellectual fraud and disguised partisanship and therefore require full disclosure of the sample, representation in terms of geographic and demographic distribution, methods and instruments used, and margin of error. which is given in the final analysis. Therefore, it should be based on evidence and not on eminence.

Except Rabiu Kwankwasopresidential candidate of the New Nigerian People’s Party (NPP), there are poll results by famous organizations predicting victory for the other three main candidates. For example, ANAP, Bloomberg, steers, New Nextier and Daily Trust has conducted a pre-election poll predicting the victory of the Labor Party candidate, Mr. Peter Obi. A pre-election poll by Fitsch Solutions and State Risk Research as well as the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) fordictated victory to Asiwaju He is Ahmed Born from incumbent Entire Progressive Congress (APC). Opinion polls have also predicted a victory for the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Minister Atiku Abubakar. Already, the results of pre-election polls have become controversial the priests have refused polls predicting the victory of candidates other than themhimself.

Producing Pre-Election Polls in a Fractured Context: Need to Worry?

Conducting elections at what is known to be the most volatile time in Nigeria’s history, Are multiple, contradictory, and controversial polls predicting post-election violence after the 2023 presidential election? Considering the fact that although it was considered to be the most transparent conducted at the time, the results of the 2011 presidential election still resulted in post-election violence especially in the north of the country.

How can we prevent the post-election violence that saved the results of the 2011 presidential election in the states in the north-east and north-west where the followers of the candidate of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), Muhamadu Buhari broke up because they felt rigged out based on expectations that is before the election. We must not forget that years later, the healing cannot be seen to have fully occurred because of the losses suffered by those affected.

At the moment, my concern is because of the similarity in behavior and enthusiasm of Mr. Peter Obi’s followers especially on social media and the explanation from his spokesperson that Obi can only lose if the election is stolen on 23/2/23. when appearing on TV Channels.

Considering the strong presence of Obidents on social media and the potential for violent mobilization, the volatility in the south-east where Obi comes from and Obi’s strategy to protect religious and ethnic minorities in the campaign, the results of the pre-election polls should be of interest to students of post-election violence and security. .

This is because of the analyst has identified opacity and deficiencies in methodology and results. As a product of the elite and the enlightened class, the power of the opinion expressed in this poll to cure post-election violence should not be dismissed lightly, especially when considering the possibility of active violent groups that exist. across the country to be sympathetic to any candidate. Also, the dispute that arose from the pre-election polls could be related to the drug reaction, with thuggery, ignoring the Peace Accord. and misuse and social media for misinformation that has been identified by INEC and other stakeholders to ignite violence.

Conclusions and Recommendations

Given the fragility of inter-group relations and the tense atmosphere in Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election, polls may inadvertently enter the list of predictors of post-election violence. They can be instrumentalized by election deniers to pose Credibility questions that could damage the election result for which the necessary protection must be effective positioned.

Therefore, to avoid being used for undesired results, the National Peace Committee (NPC), INEC, development partners, and other non-partisan stakeholders in the country should set standards for the conduct of pre-election polls. These standards should include full disclosure of funders and political leanings, methodology, samples, questionnaires, interview modes, and more importantly weight, that is, statistical adjustments for these things for results but not achieved during the polls..

Gbemi Animashahun with the Center for Peace and Strategic Studies, University of Ilorin.