2022 was another record hot year. Experts say we must prepare for more climate-related disasters

2022 is the fifth warmest year on record, Europe-based climate service Copernicus reported on Tuesday.

0.3 C above the 1991-2020 average, and 1.2 C above the pre-industrial average (1850-1900), making it the eighth year in a row that global temperatures have been more than 1 C above average pre-industrial. NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release their joint findings on January 12, which will be the same or similar rankings, as in previous years.

The fact that there was another year in the top 10 came as no surprise to most, but experts say the warming trend continues despite a cooling phenomenon called La Nina.

“It is unusual that with La Nina, which should bring cooler temperatures, we will now have confirmation. [as one of the] warmest year,” said Mélie Monnerat, project manager at the University of Waterloo’s Integrated Center for Climate Adaptation.

“Although 2022 may not be as warm as 2021, it is still very high.”

There is an ocean pattern called El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), where temperatures in certain parts of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean can warm or cool by several degrees. When it’s colder, it’s a La Nina year. If it’s warmer, it’s an El Nino year.

Both patterns have different effects around the world, depending on where you are. But El Nino years usually result in warmer annual global temperatures.

However, the past three years have been La Nina years – and also some of the warmest years on record, with effects felt across the globe and countries.

In 2021, Lytton, BC, recorded the highest temperature in Canada, which was 49.6 C. It was also almost wiped off the map after a deadly forest fire. And in 2022, all over the world, there will be no shortage of climate disasters, including floods in Pakistan and Nigeria, drought in Somaliaand record breaking heat wave in Europe.

It’s a reminder that, as the planet warms, we will face more climate-related disasters, and we need to be better prepared, experts say.

WATCH | What to expect from the climate in 2023:

Warmest year on record

According to some climate agencies, La Nina is expected to transition to neutral during the summer. After that, it’s possible we could move into another El Nino, meaning we could see one of the warmest years on record, possibly beating 2016 when temperatures were about 1.01 C above average.

“In our report, we cover that the last eight years have been the eight warmest years on record. Last year, we said that the last seven years have been the seven warmest years on record,” said Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. “The reality is that the climate we’re in now, our infrastructure is not fit for purpose.”

They also noted that, without La Nina, 2022 would have been warmer.

If we fast forward 10 or 15 years, 2022 may be considered a colder-than-average year.– Samantha Burgess, deputy director, Copernicus Climate Change Service

Burgess said that as greenhouse gases continue to be emitted, future years will become warmer and warmer.

“If we move forward 10 or 15 years ahead, 2022 may be considered a colder-than-average year,” he said.

‘We will reach 1.5 degrees this century’

2023 has already broken winter temperature records across Europe.

The Copernicus report also notes that CO2 and methane emissions – the two main contributors to global warming – will increase in 2022: CO2, by 2.1 parts per million and methane by 12 parts per billion.

This is not in line with the goal of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to try to limit global warming to 1.5 C by the end of this century by rapidly reducing emissions.

“We’re going to get to 1.5 degrees this century,” Burgess said. “The worry is we’re going to hit it in the next decade or so.”

Currently, we are at 1.2 degrees of warming above the pre-industrial average, he said, and if we do a linear extrapolation of the amount of greenhouse gases currently in the atmosphere, that will take us into the early 2030s.

But that point, he added, was not alarming. It is to reiterate how important our choices are, from the way we use to the way we choose.

And just because we’re going to get to 1.5 C doesn’t mean it’s going to be like that forever, he says, nor does it mean we should try to adapt to or mitigate climate change.

“This is not a cliff edge,” Burgess said of the 1.5 C temperature. “Every fraction of a degree is important. It’s important for the type of heat wave we have this summer, and the implications that has for vulnerable parts of our communities. It’s important for ecosystems , whether the fish can breed or not, whether it is the right season. species are available in the right season for the species to develop.”

‘There’s a lot of work to be done’

For Canada, Monnerat noted that the federal government has launched a National Adaptation Strategy, which aims to combat the consequences of climate change – for example, creating new strategies when heat waves increase across the country, in places like Toronto.

“Many of the targets of the national adaptation strategy have a period up to 2024 to 2025,” he said. That, he notes, is for the short term – such as dealing with extreme and persistent heat waves – but with a larger goal moving forward to 2040.

“There’s a lot of work to be done. Some parts of Canada are warming twice as fast as the average of the rest of the planet,” Monnerat said. “And then North became three [that]. And with the thawing of permafrost and the melting of ice, this is a particular challenge addressed in the National Adaptation Strategy.

The government should re-examine where houses are built so that they are not affected by floods and wildfires, he added.

He also noted that the Intact Center has tools for homeowners to prepare themselves against events like flooding — which is the biggest and costliest consequence of climate change for homeowners in parts of Canada — as well as wildfires.

Meanwhile, Burgess said, as a mother, she is concerned that her son will not be able to see and enjoy the landscapes and wildlife that he loves. But he did not lose hope for the future.

“It keeps me awake at night,” he said. “But also, I feel the next generation of optimism and climate activism.”