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The above is from the dataset for the Opinium poll on 14 December which I presented to highlight one of the big uncertainties in the next election that I have mentioned before – what GE2019 Tory voters are saying now.
CON 49% : LAB 12% : LD 3% GRN 1%: REF 8%: DK 22%
From the table above the numbers focus on 22% said DK.
The important thing is that they want to vote, but they are not ready to tell the polls which way to go. My guess is that the marginal party machine will have a pretty good idea of where the vote support is and this group will be targeted very strongly with the aim of getting people back into the Tory camp.
The reason why this table does not correspond to the number of voting intentions published from this poll is because it includes all responses and not just those who named a party.
The critical thing from the Tory perspective is that this 22% does not say LAB specifically.
Mike Smithson
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