Bitcoin (BTC) volatility has remained low in the last few days of last year, indicating that investors are not in a rush to enter the market.
Bitcoin ended 2022 near $16,500, and the first day of the new year also failed to ignite the market. This indicates that traders remain alert and look for catalysts to initiate the next trend move.
Some analysts remain bearish on Bitcoin’s short-term price action. David Marcus, CEO and founder of the Bitcoin company Lightspark, said in a blog post released on December 30 that he does not see the end of the crypto season in 2023 and not even in 2024. He expects that it will take time to rebuild consumer confidence but believes that the reset is now possible It is also good for a legitimate company over the long term.
A bearish call is an indication that sentiment remains negative, but there is also a silver lining. Usually, a bear market ends after the last bull has turned bearish. With no more sellers, price action stabilizes and new buyers enter the market. That usually results in a reversal and the start of a new upward movement.
While Bitcoin remains tied in the range, select altcoins are showing signs of strength. Let’s take a look at the chart and find important levels to watch out for.
BTC/USDT
The failure of the bulls to push Bitcoin above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $16,778 has further strengthened the bears who are trying to put the price below the immediate support at $16,256.
The 20-day EMA is gradually declining and the relative strength index (RSI) is near 43, indicating a small advantage for sellers. If the bears drop the price below $16,256, the BTC/Tether (USDT) pair may drop to $16,000 and then become an important support at $15,476. A break below this support can signal a rejob from the downtrend.
This negative view will be invalidated in the near term if buyers push the price above $17,100. Such a move would indicate aggressive buying on dips. The pair was then able to pick up momentum and make a run to $18,388. The seller is expected to mount a strong defense at this level.
The pair has been stuck between $16,256 and $17,061 for some time. Bounce from support facing selling near the moving average. This indicates that the bears continue to sell in the rally.
However, a minor positive is that the bulls have not given up and the pair remains close to the 20-EMA. This increases the probability of a break above the moving average. If that happens, the pair could rise to $16,800 and then $17,061.
On the downside, bears need to pull the price below the immediate support at $16,429 to set up a retest of $16,256.
LTC/USDT
Some major cryptocurrencies are still looking for a bottom but Litecoin (LTC) is lower than June. This indicates strong demand at lower levels.
The 20-day EMA of $69 has leveled off and the RSI is just above the midpoint, suggesting a balance between supply and demand.
The advantage will tilt the buyers if they push and keep the price above the moving average. The LTC/USDT pair may then rise to overhead resistance at $75. This is an important level to watch out for in the near term as a break above it could open the door for a rally to $85.
On the contrary, if the price breaks down from the current level and falls below the 20-day EMA, the pair can slide towards $65.
The moving average on the 4-hour chart is slowly rising and the RSI is in positive territory, signaling that bulls have the upper hand. There is a small resistance at $72, but if this level is crossed, the upside may reach $75.
Sellers may mount a strong defense in the $72 to $75 zone, but if the bulls bulldoze through, the rally could accelerate and reach $80. On the downside, a break below $65 could open the door for a drop to $61.
APE/USDT
ApeCoin (APE) has been trading in a large range between $3 and $7.80 for the past few months. The moving average has flattened, and the RSI is close to its midpoint, indicating that selling pressure may be easing.
Bears have not allowed the price to rise above the moving average, but the encouraging sign is that the bull has maintained pressure to buy and not let the price slip. This increases the probability of a break above the moving average. If this happens, the APE/USDT pair may rise to $4.58 and then to $5.25.
Alternatively, if the bears do not allow the price to break through the overhead resistance, the pair can again drop to the important support at $3. A break below the $3 to $2.61 support zone could indicate the start of the next leg down.
The pair forms a symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart. This shows indecision between bulls and bears. Although the moving average is flattish, the RSI has risen into the positive zone, indicating that the bulls have a slight edge. If the buyers break the small resistance at $3.71, the pair can rise to the triangle resistance line.
On the contrary, if the price drops and breaks below the uptrend line, it will suggest that the bears are back in the game. The pair could then drop to $3.20 and later to important support at $3.
related: Rewind 2022: Roundup crypto year and run into 2023
ICP/USDT
Internet Computer (ICP) continues to trade below the $4.61 breakout level, but the RSI is forming a positive divergence, indicating that selling pressure may be easing.
Buyers pushed the price above the Dec. 30 downtrend line, but the bulls could not sustain the breakout. The bulls again tried to overcome the obstacles on January 1, but the long axis of the candlestick shows that the bears sold in the intraday rally.
If the price drops and stays below the 20-day EMA of $3.91, the bear will try to pull the price to $3.60 and then to $3.40.
On the contrary, if the price rebounds from the moving average, the bull will again try to drive the price above $4.21. If it can pull through, the ICP/USDT pair could rise to $4.61, where bears may try to prevent a recovery.
The bulls have been able to defend the 50-SMA but failed to hold the price above the 20-EMA. This indicates that the bear is active at a higher level. If the price declines and falls below $3.90, the pair may drop to $3.76 and then $3.60.
Alternatively, if the bulls pierce the overhead resistance zone from $4.10 to $4.21, the momentum can pick up and the pair can rise to $4.46. This level may be a small obstacle but it can be bypassed. The pair could then reach $4.61.
BIT/USDT
BitDAO (BIT) has been consolidating between $0.25 and $0.35 for the past few days, but price action is showing signs of a possible breakout.
The moving average has completed a bullish crossover, indicating a potential trend reversal. If buyers catapult the price above $0.35, the BIT/USDT pair could start a new uptrend. The pair can then try to rally towards the target level at $0.45.
On the other hand, if the price goes down from $0.35, it will suggest that the bears maintain this level with enthusiasm. The price could then move down to the 20-day EMA of $0.30.
If the price rebounds from this level, it would suggest that sentiment may have shifted from selling on rallies to buying on dips. That could increase the prospect of a break above $0.35.
Bears need to pull the price below the moving average to cancel the bullish view. The pair can then stay stuck in distance for longer.
The price fell sharply from the overhead resistance at $0.35 but the bulls tried to catch a pullback at the 20-EMA. If the price rebounds from the 20-EMA with strength, it will suggest aggressive buying on dips. The pair could then measure overhead resistance and begin a northward march towards $0.40 and then $0.42.
However, if the price breaks down and breaks below the 20-EMA, some short-term bulls may take advantage. That can pull the price for 50-SMA. The move would suggest that the pair may spend some time apart.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making decisions.