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If you look at the latest polls and the reports, you’d think it’s already a big Conservative voter going to LAB.
So CON’s 12% leadership in GE2019 has now become LAB’s 15% or more. This shows how much Starmer’s party will gain in the next election. INCORRECT.
This is due to the widespread practice of polling and only reporting the views of those who give an indication of how they voted.
What is rarely reported is how many GE2019 Conservative voters did not indicate their intention to vote. This is a pretty important place and the suspicion is that some of them will go back to what they always did – vote Tory.
To win the majority LAB must make 124 results from the Tories which is a big ask.
I think the best General Election bet right now is that LAB won’t get a majority. Laying this at the current prices is a value bet and I do it. All the MidTerm winnings in laying the majority of the GOP in the Senate are now going to this.
Mike Smithson
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