Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be sworn in as Brazil’s president for a third term on Sunday, with security measures tightened following an alleged bomb plot by supporters of leader Jair Bolsonaro.
The inauguration in Brasília, exactly two decades after the veteran politician first took office, is expected to draw hundreds of thousands of people to a festival-style celebration with live music.
Lula, as he is universally known, won the tightest election since democracy was restored in the South American country in the 1980s, making a remarkable political comeback just three years after his release from prison.
But the 77-year-old former metal worker faces many difficulties as he seeks to honor campaign promises that include ending hunger and destroying the Amazon rainforest.
Lula stands next to Marina Silva, who will be Brazil’s new environment minister © Andre Borges/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
In addition to fiscal pressure and the greatest economic prospects in the weakened region, the icon of the Latin American left has to deal with a separate country.
“The economic and social challenges are greater today than in 2003,” said Graziella Testa, a political scientist at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation.
“First, how will the government respond to extremist groups that are openly anti-democratic and do not accept the election results.”
Lula won 50.9 percent of the vote to defeat the incumbent, a far-right populist once dubbed the “Trump of the Tropics”, in the second round of voting in October.
Contrary to custom, the outgoing president is not expected to be present to hand over the presidential belt to his successor. Bolsonaro even traveled to Florida, where he dined with ally Donald Trump at the former US president’s Mar-a-Lago resort. Bolsonaro’s political party and presidential office did not comment. Trump also refused to attend the inauguration of his successor, Joe Biden, whose victory he claimed was a fraud.
A former army captain, Bolsonaro promotes conservative values, gun ownership and a liberal economic agenda, while rejecting the gravity of Covid-19 and protecting the environment.
Outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro, who has been indecisive since losing, spoke publicly from Brasília last Friday © Reuters
“The people will shout that democracy WINS! Let’s start a new year, a new page of our history,” tweeted senator Randolfe Rodrigues, an ally of Lula. “Brazilians will leave behind denial, indifference, hatred and violence.”
Some of Bolsonaro’s more radical supporters have claimed – without evidence – that the ballot was rigged and have staged protests since the results, calling for a military coup to prevent the handover of power.
“We want order and freedom. The armed forces must take power and give victory to our president [Bolsonaro] the one chosen by the Brazilian people,” said Roberta Godinho at a protest outside an army base in São Paulo last month.
Tensions increased after the arrest on Christmas Eve of a 54-year-old man, who had traveled to the capital to participate in the demonstration, in connection with an explosive device found in a fuel tanker near the city’s airport. The suspect told police that his goal was to “spread chaos” and cause an emergency.
In a rare public speech since his defeat, Bolsonaro denied the action. “No one here in Brasília justifies this attempt to act as a terrorist,” he said.
The incident follows disturbances in Brasília a few weeks ago, when rioters torched vehicles and clashed with law enforcement after trying to storm a police building. Several arrests were made last week.
Amid the fraught atmosphere, Lula’s inauguration will have “the biggest security apparatus in decades”, according to Renato Sérgio de Lima, president of the Brazilian Public Security Forum.
“There is a new element of domestic terrorism and ideological radicalization. This requires maximum attention because it introduces risks that were not previously on the radar,” he said.
Lula’s 2003-10 presidency coincided with a period of strong economic growth, declining poverty and Brazil’s rise on the international stage.
However, it is a legacy marred by corruption controversies and economic mismanagement under his chosen successor, Dilma Rousseff. Many Brazilians distrust long-standing unions because of the record of the Labor party, or PT.
His 13-year rule was marred by a major political bribery scandal, the worst recession in Brazil’s history and Rousseff’s impeachment in 2016.
Lula himself spent 580 days in jail after being found guilty of corruption. But that conviction was overturned in 2021 by the Supreme Court – paving the way for his candidacy.
While the country benefited from a commodity boom during Lula’s first term in office, the global economic picture is less bleak. Brazil’s gross domestic product expansion is forecast to slow from 3 percent in 2022, to below 1 percent in 2023.
Investors worry that Lula’s promises to boost welfare and infrastructure spending will further strain public finances and lead to tax hikes, with extra inflationary pressure forcing the central bank to keep interest rates in double digits for longer.
“The tight fiscal space will be the main challenge for the president-elect. It will not be possible to rely on external scenarios to provide revenue for the expansion of spending,” said Wagner Parente, chief executive of BMJ Consulting.
Another concern in the business community is government interference in the economy, he said.
In contrast to Bolsonaro’s isolationist approach to international affairs, the second-term president has promised to restore Brazil’s global status. More high-ranking officials and foreign diplomats are expected to attend the ceremony than Bolsonaro’s inauguration in 2019.
Additional reporting by Carolina Ingizza