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Close to defeat seems to face Sunak’s side
In his analysis in I, renowned political scientist Professor John Curtice suggests that the Tories may be too far from completing the recovery necessary to avoid defeat at the next general election.
Things went terribly wrong for the party after last September’s mini-budget and as polls show the Tories still have a long way to go despite a modest recovery. Speaking of LAB Curtice writes:
Since the “fiscal event” in September, the party has regularly enjoyed poll leads of 10 points or more, putting the party in a stronger position than at any time since it was removed from office in 2010 and the various types of polls the party has led. enjoyed in the years leading up to the 1997 General Election. Of course, this is not a happy precedent for Tory MPs…Now just over 40 per cent of those who voted Leave in 2016 supported the Conservatives, lower than the 74 per cent who did in 2019. In 2019 these voters they won around by promising to “get Brexit done”. But now that it’s over, they, like everyone else, are looking for a competent government at home – and it’s doubtful that the Conservatives can provide it.
This is certainly in line with how the players see it with Starmer now a 70%+ betting chance to become PM post-election.
Mike Smithson
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