Russian President Vladimir Putin appears desperate to find a way to break the shackles of diplomatic isolation that has gradually crippled Russia’s economy despite continued manipulation of the open, unregulated energy market through price levers.
In an unusual end-of-year virtual meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping via video link on Monday, December 30, he appeared unaccustomed to Xi and fought his trademark arrogance to please his Chinese counterpart.
“We look forward to you, Mr. Chairman, dear friend, we look forward to seeing you next spring on a state visit to Moscow. This will demonstrate the strength of Russian-Chinese relations to the whole world on the main issue,” is how Putin tried to show “external happiness ordinary” for Xi.
This is in stark contrast to the signature superciliousness of Putin, who is notorious for bullying world leaders during diplomatic interactions through verbal and non-verbal communication.
Keeping other people waiting for him late in scheduled sessions, using a very long table for bilateral meetings to symbolize “distance”, bringing his favorite dog to official meetings and paying more attention to his pet than to the guests are intimidation cues. from the methods that have been used in the past to register arrogance.
However, it appears that the Ukraine war and its economic and political implications have forced them to do more to lure Xi. But Xi’s response to Putin’s rapprochement was lukewarm. He bluntly told his Russian counterpart that the road to peace talks in Ukraine will not be smooth and that China will continue to uphold an “objective and fair attitude” on the issue.
Yes, Xi showed a willingness for close coordination between Beijing and Moscow in international affairs and offered to facilitate Russia’s willingness to participate in talks on Ukraine, but he refused to support Putin in the Ukraine accident clearly.
“You and I share the same views on the causes, of course, and the logic of the transformation of the global geopolitical landscape, in the face of unprecedented pressure and provocation from the West,” Putin told Xi in a video conference while offering his full support. China on the issue of Taiwan also hopes to improve military relations between China and Russia.
Interestingly, although Xi expressed his readiness to increase strategic cooperation with Russia in what he called a “difficult” situation in the global arena, he did not mention any plans to increase military collaboration. Interestingly, the two had signed an “unrestricted” strategic partnership in February last year, out of mistrust of the West, days before Russian troops invaded Ukrainian territory in what Putin called a “special military operation”.
Of course, China is considered Russia’s most important ally in the Ukraine war. However, in the past 10 months, we have witnessed many confusing and somewhat contradictory adjustments in China’s attitude. Instead of voting for Russia, China preferred to reject the UN security council and general assembly resolutions in March last year.
In addition, regarding sanctions on Russia, China has shown reasonable compliance with the rest of the world. Rumors are rife that China is aware of an impending invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 as Russia waits for the summit of the Beijing winter Olympics before sending troops across the border.
From the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, China verbally pledged to support Russia. But recent events seem to indicate that China is now backing away somewhat from this posture. Is there a change of heart? The answer is, in part, yes.
A Russian victory was not what China wanted or expected. A Russian victory would surely embolden Putin — now a junior partner in Xi’s anti-Western efforts — to seize an assertive role in the global power structure. In the event of a Russian victory, the country would appear stronger than before launching the invasion, and would persuade Putin to think about what he would do to create a new Soviet Union.
A stronger Russian Federation – and Putin – will certainly reduce the chances of playing second fiddle. In that case, Putin prefers to pursue his own high-octane power agenda and project Russia as an equal player – to the US and China – in the new tri-polar power setup, rather than remaining an ally of China. A strong and resurgent Putin would certainly be a grubby scenario for the Chinese in the long run as it would be very difficult for Beijing to keep Putin from pursuing his ambitious agenda. Putin will be free to maneuver as he pleases and may directly harm China’s interests.
This is what Xi and his colleagues do not want. Historically, Russia and China have always been traditional enemies and have engaged in confrontation on various issues. The new love affair between the two is the result of a convergence of similar anti-US and anti-Western sentiments amid a rapidly evolving global power equation.
Of course, Russia’s defeat at the end of the long war of aggression in Ukraine is what serves Chinese interests at this time. Russia has no choice but to become a permanent junior partner in China’s global agenda. A very sick Russia, isolated from the West, will be forced to join China in the form of a soft ally.
For Beijing, the only negative consequence of Russia’s defeat is the rise of a pro-Western regime in Moscow. But this is a very remote possibility. Yes, a defeat in Ukraine would drastically reduce Putin’s power and an internal revolt cannot be ruled out.
However, Putin has few rivals in the United Russia party or the opposition party who can challenge him now. At the same time, there is no prominent pro-Western pressure group in Russia with enough potential to topple him.
Russia’s two most prominent opposition parties – Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s far-right party and the Communists – cannot be classified as pro-Western. Nor will Putin leave the stage quietly in the face of defeat. A “wounded” Putin may become more aggressive and reactive to save his own base at home by pre-empting any possible move by insiders.
That is why the Chinese are very careful about the Ukraine episode and keep their cards close to their chest. China apparently does not want Russia to emerge as the real winner of this imbroglio because Russia winning will be inordinately decisive and it will be difficult for Beijing to manage, while Russia routed and sequestered has only one option – accept China as a big brother and play the role of a junior partner. Maybe this is what the Chinese wanted at the end of the Ukraine episode.
However, the recent virtual meeting between Putin and Xi reflects the anxiety on both sides: Putin is definitely on the back foot after several military failures in Ukraine and wants to improve his position by projecting “closeness” to Beijing. Xi also faces a tough time on the home front after rejecting a strict zero-Covid policy that led to a resurgence of the pandemic and an unprecedented wave of protests against his containment policies.
Dr Imran Khalid is a freelance columnist on international affairs based in Karachi, Pakistan. He qualified as a doctor from Dow Medical University in 1991 and holds a master’s degree in international relations from the University of Karachi.