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This piece originally started as a 2023 prediction thread, but then I realized that the 2024 presidential election and the subsequent UK general election were shown so much that I realized that the election could happen within weeks if not every day. represents some challenge for punters.
Only the heir to the royal throne of fools will hold a general election in the UK in January (2025), it will be an election campaign that goes through the Christmas holidays and the new year will make the campaign. I’m not sure whether canvassing on say Christmas Eve or the day between December 23 and January 2 will be the winner of the vote. Who wants to make leaflets during this period?
When the Prime Minister and the government are in trouble, most try and imitate Travolta Micawber, Stayin’ Alive long enough, hoping it will happen, so I expect Sunak or his successor to stay until the fall of 2024 which will take us to October. /November/December 2024.
There is more chance of the Free Presbyterian Church of Scotland converting to Roman Catholicism and the declaration of lifetime fealty for the Pope from the UK Prime Minister holding the Election in January. So, what is the main problem if these two elections happen at the same time?
I) Bandwidth problem
The UK general election and the US presidential election are the two elections that make the most money for political gamblers, which is what made Mike Smithson make PB, the shortest gap between the US presidential election and the UK general election since PB was established. it’s six months between November 2004 and May 2005. In 2024 we can talk about the gap between today’s elections.
Not just the two big elections, there are many additional markets such as control of the house and senate, Scottish independence (if the SNP get a 2015 style result in 2024 then that conversation needs to happen), turnout, and the next leadership market that happens. together. In seven of the last eight general elections, the results have resulted in a leadership contest in one of GB’s two major parties.
Some of us may not have the emotional strength to deal with these two elections happening so close together.
II) Liquidity problem
As noted, these are the two most bets in the election, the liquidity issue may be a challenge for some, many of us trade in and out of the market, thus causing players to not be able to continue trading.
I’m really looking forward to deal with two massive elections at the same time, it should be fun, this is what gambling is all about. 2024 may be the year of the political gambler.
TSE
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