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The memory of GE1E1992 is still strong
Last night we had the worst poll for the Tories in decades, but the betting market has not reacted as you can see in the chart showing the movement in the general election majority betting market.
I have to say that I expected to wake up this morning to see the number of stakes change a fair bit after the polls that have the Tories at only 19%. Sure pollster is very new to this game and doesn’t have a solid reputation yet.
I still think the problem with the current polls is a very significant proportion of those who voted for the Tories in the last election now say they don’t know or don’t have a party choice.
Those of us old enough to remember the 1992 General Election will remember how a LAB victory seemed all but certain but John Major’s Tories could only hold on. This was a terrible disaster from a polling point of view and led to an important change in methodology. At the end of the day, voters weren’t ready to switch to Kinnock.
I was a candidate in that election and remember the reaction at the door on the Tuesday before voting.
Mike Smithson
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