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The last article, arguing Labor is the favorite in Selby & Ainsty, provoked a fair bit of controversy from some commentators. The Tories may be vulnerable, but Labor is hardly a party with a history of electoral upsets. That’s what the Lib Dems are for.
The Lib Dems have enjoyed three by-election victories since the last election, not only winning the still-leaning Chesham & Amersham but also leaving seats in North Shropshire and Tiverton & Honiton. The last two seats also come from 3rd Place, make a mockery of Labor claims to be the main challenge.
Punters are expecting the same to happen at Mid Beds, where Nadine Dorries has announced her retirement (although not yet). ‘Yellow Peril’ was quickly installed as about 1/2 favorite in the bookies and remained the favorite for the evening despite a constituency poll placing the party 4Th!
The polls were quite surprising in many ways, with strong independent candidates and Labor winning just 28%, and eliciting only modest reactions from the players. The market just isn’t buying Labor over the Lib Dems here. I’m less skeptical.
Labor seems to have more mojo than a year or so back. Looking at national polls, Labor averaged almost 35% in December 2021 when North Shropshire went to the polls, tied with the Tories, and less than 40% in June 2022 when Tiverton & Honiton did. It is now averaging nearly 50%, a sharp increase over the past few weeks.
Furthermore, we have many polls showing Labor making huge inroads in so-called ‘Blue Wall’ seats – and the Lib Dems struggling. Various pollsters have conducted polls on this, often vaguely defined, category of seats. They almost all found the same result: Labor and the Lib Dems are roughly tied for the seat in 2019, with the Tories ahead. Now Labor has made great progress and may even double its support, overtaking the Tories. The Lib Dems, by contrast, have made no progress.
There is a general assumption that the next election will see Labor and the Lib Dems unofficially splitting the region and each competing in different seats. I wonder if we could be overstating this, and Labor will only advance almost everywhere the Lib Dems are not clear 2n.d placed last time around. Given Labor comes 2n.d in Mid Beds in 2019, it may be that the constituency polls are unreliable.
There is one big flaw with this theory: The precedents of Tiverton & Honiton and North Shropshire, two seats where the Lib Dems won from 3rd Place although the Blue Wall polls have shown a strong Labor trend. I certainly will not rule out that happening again here (or the Tories holding on, a massive majority).
But I think the market is very dismissive of the Labor victory. The national poll numbers are very good, so it should be competitive everywhere, and the Blue Wall polls support this. They certainly give the campaign some serious resources: I think the market should take them very much. You can get 5/1 with Betway or similar on the betting exchange, and it is very long.
PS: I stick with the logic in the previous article that Labor should be favorite in Selby & Ainsty, but the market has swung too far in my opinion. I’ve taken a profit on the position by the Tories at 5/1, and think it’s clear value. An 18% swing for Labor hardly nailed it.
It seems strange to place these bets at the same time, but both are longer than the same and we know that the election will cause surprises. Creating surprises when we have little data is the right strategy in my opinion.
Pip Moss
Pip Moss posts on Political Betting as Quincel. He has bet on Labor to win Mid Bedfordshire at 5/1. He has a bet on Labor winning Selby & Ainsty at 5/4 and the Tories holding on at 5/1. You can follow him on Twitter at @PipsFunFacts
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