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All indications are that the Tories will struggle to hold on to power in the general election. According to John Curtice’s calculations he would need an overall GB vote lead of around 3% to ensure he gets a majority. Labor by contrast requires 7%.
Although the polls have fallen slightly since their worst period last year, the Tories still face a huge struggle to be competitive. It is very easy in the current numbers to see the party lose 130 or more seats. Those who are threatened with defeat may be ultra-nervous and there should be a possibility of talking about a change of leadership.
What is apparent is how often Sunak finds excuses to miss PMQs that he has not yet mastered.
At the moment I think he will and will leave but the chances are increasing that things can change.
Mike Smithson
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