The Counteroffensive Is Coming – The New York Times

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Recapturing land occupied by the enemy during war is a very difficult task. But militaries that try to do so usually have a big advantage: surprise. The occupying forces did not know when and where the attackers would attack.

In 1944, the US and its allies tricked the Nazis into believing that the invasion of France would take place on the other side of the Atlantic coast than it did. Now, Ukraine is also hoping to surprise Russia with the start of a spring or summer counteroffensive. The Russians knew that a major attack was coming, but not as much as they would have done.

The results of these counterattacks can shape the outcome of the war. A successful campaign by Ukraine, recapturing territory currently controlled by Russia, could prompt President Vladimir Putin to fear defeat and seek a life-saving peace deal. A failed counteroffensive could cause Ukraine’s Western allies to wonder whether the war can be won and potentially push Ukraine into an unfavorable ceasefire.

In today’s newsletter, I’ll be previewing the upcoming battle phases, with the help of my fellow covers. A counterattack could begin at any point in the next few weeks.

Russia’s so-called land bridge in southeastern Ukraine may be the focus:

The southern end of the land bridge is the Crimean Peninsula, which was invaded and occupied by Russian forces almost a decade ago. Since the larger war began last year, Putin has also taken control of territory that connects Crimea to Russia, including the port city of Mariupol and much of the Donbas region, in eastern Ukraine. “The Ukrainians want to destroy the land bridge,” said Julian Barnes, who is with the intelligence agency in Washington.

Russian-held territory offers several strategic advantages. One, Ukraine is cut off from roughly half of the coast. Two, the area includes a nuclear plant near the city of Zaporizhzhia which is a major electricity producer.

Third, and perhaps most importantly, Russia can more easily deploy its forces in Crimea. The land bridge is one of two routes for Russian military supplies to Crimea and cities in southern Ukraine, according to Andrew Kramer, Kyiv bureau chief of The Times. (The other is the Kerch Strait.)

Experts compared the last few months of the war to World War I, with both sides dug in the trenches and making no progress. Russia lost tens of thousands of troops this year just to capture Bakhmut, a suburban town in the Donbas.

Ukraine hopes that the counteroffensive will end this stalemate. Western allies have been supplying Ukraine’s military with billions of dollars worth of equipment and training its troops in camps in Germany for the past few months. The troops have learned a technique known as combined arms warfare, where parts of the military work together to take territory. Tanks punched enemy lines by rolling through trenches, for example, and infantry then spread out to hold territory.

“The counteroffensive is likely to start in many places, probably in the south and east,” Julian said. “Some will be feints. Some will be part of the main effort.

Ukraine still has fewer troops and less equipment than Russia, but Ukraine’s military has now proven to be more effective – with better morale, smarter tactics and more advanced Western weaponry – than Russia’s. The counterattack is effectively a bet that Ukraine can use its advantage not only to repel Russia but to recapture large swaths of territory.

As Thomas Gibbons-Neff, Ukrainian correspondent, said, “If Ukraine manages to decide the land bridge, the Russian forces will be under more tension and, more importantly, Ukraine will be in a better position to attack far east and south, to Crimea. .”

Most experts do not believe that Ukraine will retake Crimea anytime soon – or that this war will end with Crimea back under Ukrainian control. However, Ukraine does not need these results for the counterattack to succeed. Any major advance could cause Putin and his aides to worry that a prolonged war will cause more losses and ultimately put Crimea at risk. “Russians care about Crimea,” says my friend Helene Cooper. Before the Soviet era, this region was part of Russia for decades.

In a favorable scenario for Ukraine, a peace deal in which Russia is expelled from everywhere, but Crimea and part of the Donbas region will be applicable. On the flip side, a failed counteroffensive and an unbroken land bridge will provide Putin with a great psychological victory and the foundation to launch future attacks.

An important factor is that Ukraine now has enough weapons for just one major push. Had the Ukrainians not advanced in the fall, when colder and wetter weather made the battle more difficult, the Russian land bridge might have appeared impenetrable.

As Helene points out, however, Ukraine has often exceeded expectations in this war. Even the fall of Bakhmut, while disappointing, took more months than analysts expected. Next month, Ukraine’s military will attempt to complete its most difficult task since repelling the initial Russian invasion.

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The summer movie season starts next week. Among the films that pleased The Times critics:

  • horrify: “The Boogeyman,” inspired by a Stephen King story, is about a young woman who fights a supernatural entity that invades her home. (June 2)

  • sci-fi: “Asteroid City,” Wes Anderson’s take on the 1950s fascination with flying saucers, features the usual star-studded cast. (June 16)

  • Action: “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” Harrison Ford’s final film in the franchise. (June 30)

  • Animation: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” the sequel to the Oscar-winning “Into the Spider-Verse.” (June 2)

See the full summer movie calendar.

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