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The technical issues that plagued the launch of Republican 2024 presidential bid Ron DeSantis on Twitter are certainly a bad start to his national campaign, but there are more pressing challenges facing the Florida governor.
Most notably, while polls suggest DeSantis is the second most popular choice among Republicans, he has officially entered the race by more than 30 points over the front-runner in the RealClearPolitics national average poll: former president Donald Trump.
After months of re-election, DeSantis has been on a roll, his poll numbers rising as he faces a challenger with a base of support unmatched by any other candidate.
With Trump in a significant lead, does DeSantis even have a chance to catch on?
“Primaries are volatile. Candidates rise and fall because voters don’t pay much attention early in the process,” said Danny Hayes, political science professor at George Washington University. “If someone were to write DeSantis right now, they wouldn’t be able to see the situation clearly.”
“Beating Trump, of course, will be difficult. But there is a lot that can happen between now and the Iowa caucuses.”
I am the president to lead our Great American Comeback. pic.twitter.com/YmkWkLaVDg
Name recognition
Despite the polling gap with Trump, it’s not all bad news for the Florida governor. Trump’s ongoing legal troubles could be a potential boon for DeSantis’ campaign. This month, Trump was found responsible for sexually abusing and defaming magazine writer E. Jean Carroll in the 1990s.
This week, the court date for a criminal trial in Manhattan related to the payment of money to women who allegedly had extramarital affairs was set for March 2024, in the middle of the prime season.
In addition, Trump may face allegations regarding his handling of classified documents and his conduct regarding the 2020 election.
And DeSantis has some political advantages that could give him a legitimate chance to win, political experts say, advantages that include name recognition.
“The hardest thing to do when you’re president is to be famous,” said Chris Stirewalt, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former Fox News Channel political editor. “To reach voters you can trust, you have to know who you are.”
People like South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, who only entered the race with over $20 million but is still polling in the single digits, should spend that money to boost name recognition, Stirewalt said.
“Ron DeSantis shouldn’t have done that,” he said.
A winning record
DeSantis has become a national figure in the US, in part because of his big win in the 2022 midterms.
But he also drew attention to the anti-COVID mandate, along with other controversial policies. These include the so-called “Don’t Talk Gay” law that bans teaching gender identity to minors in schools, a fight against so-called “wokeism” and an ongoing battle with the Walt Disney Co.
Although some of these policies have drawn criticism from liberals, many have been embraced by Republicans, increasing their popularity among the party faithful.
The re-election in Florida is also different with Trump, who lost the general election in 2020, and the candidates Trump supported, many of whom lost in the midterms.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has officially entered the race for the Republican presidential nomination. DeSantis is considered one of the frontrunners along with former US president Donald Trump.
“He has a record of winning races, especially re-election races, which are the kinds of things that will speak well to Republican primary voters who are hungry for victory,” said Republican strategist Whit Ayres.
Another big advantage for DeSantis is that he can raise a lot of money, said Republican strategist Michael DuHaime.
“As the incumbent governor of Florida, he has raised his fortune,” DuHaime said in an email.
Also, “he’s a fresh face, three decades younger than Trump.”
On the other hand
However, some political observers say DeSantis has an image problem, he’s prickly, and unlike Trump, he’s uncomfortable with crowds, which could be a more important liability in a national campaign trying to reach a wider audience.
That support is also seen among some Republicans who say Russia’s war against Ukraine is a “territorial dispute,” and impose tougher restrictions on abortion in their country. Meanwhile, the ongoing battle with Disney may have alienated some parties who see the measures as anti-business.
Ayres said he believes DeSantis has been too focused on trying to win the support of about a third of Republicans, “always Trump” voters.
“He’s not going to vote for anybody else,” Ayres said.
Instead, he suggested DeSantis should target “Probable Trump” voters, who have voted for him in the past but may want to leave all of Trump’s political baggage behind and seek out another candidate.
“He was skeptical about it [Trump] can win. So DeSantis had to present a winning persona, looking like someone who could be a successful presidential candidate and win the election.
Stirewalt said DeSantis has succeeded so far by being a blunt instrument, a political bulldozer.
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“Unfortunately for him, that’s not a skill you need when you’re playing,” he said.
“What DeSantis needs to do is pivot … use the front of people’s expectations of him as a blunt culture warrior and then do some amazing things and get interested voters who at this point are down or become skeptical.”
DuHaime said DeSantis needs to be more aggressive in defeating Trump.
“So far, DeSantis has only made oblique passive aggressive criticism of Trump because he doesn’t want to offend Trump voters,” he said. “It won’t cut it.
“DeSantis has a chance. Trump is the favorite, but everyone already knows him. All eyes will now be on DeSantis to see how he does.
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