The New Surge at the Border

The surge in migrants flocking to the U.S.-Mexico border underscores a point often made by Democratic Party politicians: U.S. border policy has a major impact on how many people try to enter the country illegally.

The current surge is largely a reaction to Title 42, a policy implemented during the Covid pandemic that allows authorities to quickly deport large numbers of immigrants who entered the country without permission, rather than letting them stay while courts consider their cases. Title 42 expires on Thursday, as part of the end of the official Covid health emergency.

In recent weeks, word has spread in Latin America that entering the US is about to get easier. Smugglers have told potential migrants that the coming period will be a good time to try to cross the border, Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said last week. US officials believe that the number of illegal crossings per day, which recently hovered around 7,500, may rise above 12,000, according to my colleague Eileen Sullivan.

“This is a real crisis,” Father Rafael Garcia of Sacred Heart Catholic Church in downtown El Paso told The Times.

Push and pull

When Democrats and progressive activists talk about undocumented immigration, they tend to emphasize forces in other countries — such as war and political oppression — that the U.S. government cannot control. And these external problems affect the flow of migration. Venezuela’s economic collapse is a recent example. Experts call these forces “push factors,” because they push people out of their countries.

But a “pull factor” in the US as well. Economic power is one. Another border security stringency.

As the US makes it harder for people to enter the country illegally, fewer people travel north to try. As the US sends a signal that people will be able to cross the border even without a permit, and potentially stay here for years, more people are trying to do so.

The pattern is clear. Donald Trump is the most anti-immigration president in decades, promising to build a border wall and belittling immigrants with racist language. Joe Biden ran for president in 2020 on the promise of a friendlier approach – and after winning the election, the number of people trying to enter the country without permission increased:

“There is a feedback loop,” said Julia Gelatt, a sociologist at the Migration Policy Institute in Washington.

Pivot Biden

Like many other political subjects these days, immigration has become extremely polarized. As a result, the complexity and trade-offs of these issues sometimes become unclear.

Many Republicans despise immigrants. In fact, as research by economists Ran Abramitzky and Leah Boustan have noted, immigrant families have continued to grow in recent decades. Children and grandchildren of immigrants have climbed the economic ladder at the same rate as in the 1800s and early 1900s.

Democrats don’t engage in anything as hateful as the white nationalist conspiracy theories prevalent on Fox News. But Democrats have sometimes shied away from tough questions on immigration policy.

A relatively lax approach to border security has its drawbacks. At the start of Biden’s presidency, thousands of people in Latin America left their homes and headed north, often taking great risks. Some have made it to the U.S. and offered a chance for a better future. Others have suffered in crowded and dangerous conditions in northern Mexico – a sign that the porous border is creating its own humanitarian problems.

A surge in migration in the past few years has also caused problems for US Social Services and shelters in Texas and Arizona cities have been overwhelmed, the mayor said. Even some cities far from the border, like Chicago and New York, have struggled to cope with the spread. “The president and the White House have failed New York City on this issue,” Mayor Eric Adams of New York, a Democrat, said last month. “Why are you doing this to New York?”

In response, the Biden administration has changed its approach. In early January, Biden announced a tougher policy to stop migrants from Venezuela, Cuba, Haiti and Nicaragua who have no claim of political oppression. The policy also offers new opportunities to come to the US legally.

Immigration advocates and some Democrats criticized the plan as cruel, saying it would deny asylum to deserving refugees. But experts say many migrants from the country are not political refugees. They want to come to the US because it gives them better job opportunities.

For the migrants themselves, the calculations are understandable. But no rich country allows unlimited immigration. If the US allows mass immigration for economic reasons, millions of people will try to enter the country.

Biden’s crackdown is already starting to have the desired effect. The number of illegal crossings has dropped significantly in recent months (which can be seen in the last few bars in the graph above). Now, the end of title 42 has created a challenge. “A lot of people will see this as an opportunity,” Gelatt said, “or smugglers will use this to get people across the border.”

To reduce the surge, Biden sent 1,500 troops to the border. The troops are there to manage the chaos — and to send a message: The US does not have open borders, and most people who try to enter the country illegally will not succeed.

SPORTS NEWS FROM ATHLETICS

NBA playoffs: The Philadelphia 76ers evened the series last night, defeating the Boston Celtics, 116-115. And the Phoenix Suns are currently tied with the Denver Nuggets in the series.

Bump: But all eyes were on Phoenix owner Mat Ishbia, who entered the court with Nikola Jokic.

Red Bull Wars: Max Verstappen won the Miami Grand Prix.

Leaves in trouble: After winning their first playoff series in nearly two decades, the Toronto Maple Leafs found themselves in another situation, down 3-0 to the Florida Panthers.

ART and IDEAS

Benefits of boxed wine

Wine boxes have a bad reputation with producers and customers, but they make ecological sense, writes Times critic Eric Asimov. “The carbon footprint is about a tenth of the emissions for the production of four bottles at a time, not even considering weight and transport,” said Melissa Monti Saunders, chief executive of the wine importer and distributor. “No way, cows are better for the planet.”

The results of yesterday’s Spelling Bee are: really good and volleyball. Here’s today’s puzzle and Bee Buddy, which helps you find the remaining words.