[ad_1]
WASHINGTON – Ukraine is preparing to launch a counterattack against Russian forces as early as next month, American officials said, in the face of great risks: Without a decisive victory, Western support for Ukraine may weaken, and Kyiv may come under increased pressure to enter. serious negotiations to end or freeze the conflict.
America’s and NATO allies are providing Ukraine with large quantities of artillery and ammunition for the coming war, and officials now say they hope the supply will last – a change from two months ago when the weapons just flowed in and U.S. officials worried the supply would last. may be. expire.
At the same time, 12 Ukrainian combat brigades of about 4,000 soldiers each are ready by the end of April, according to a leaked Pentagon document marking Kyiv’s timetable. The United States and NATO allies are training and supplying the nine brigades, the document said.
Although Ukraine has shared few details of its operational plans with American officials, the operation will take place in the southern part of the country, including on the Ukrainian coast in the Sea of Azov, near the Russian-annexed Crimea.
“Everything depends on this counteroffensive,” said Alexander Vershbow, a former US ambassador to Russia and a senior NATO official. “Everyone is hopeful, perhaps optimistic. But it will determine whether there will be a favorable outcome for the Ukrainians, in terms of regaining territory on the battlefield and making a more significant impact to achieve some negotiated settlement.
While Ukrainian officials have said the goal is to undermine Russia’s dug-in defenses and cause a collapse in the Russian army, American officials have said it is unlikely the attack will cause a dramatic shift in momentum for Ukraine.
Ukraine’s military faces a number of challenges – one reason why a stalemate remains the most likely outcome. The fighting in Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine this winter has depleted ammunition reserves and caused casualties in several experienced units.
But American military officials say the Ukrainian army could be surprised again. They are now armed with European tanks and American armored personnel carriers and have new units trained and equipped by American and NATO forces.
“I’m optimistic that between this year and next year, I think Ukraine will continue to have momentum,” British defense secretary Ben Wallace told reporters during a visit to Washington last week. “I also think we have to be realistic. There won’t be a single magic moment when Russia collapses.
Although Ukraine has deviated from its usual secrecy about its military plans by talking openly about the coming war – in part because Ukrainian leaders need to raise morale and pressure the West for weapons – US officials expect the Ukrainian army to use deception and trickery to throw Russia off. off balance.
Ukraine’s best chance to make a dramatic counteroffensive will also depend on American, NATO and Ukrainian intelligence. If the United States and its allies can identify significant weaknesses in Russia’s defenses, Ukraine can exploit them with the speed and protection of tanks and Bradley Fighting Vehicles.
Still, great results are not guaranteed, or even certain. The battlefield is heavily mined by Russia, and Ukraine’s progress will depend on whether Kyiv forces can effectively deploy mine-clearing equipment, much of which is provided by the West.
Ukraine is building a new combat brigade by pairing raw recruits with a small core of experienced veteran soldiers. Beginning in January, the unit went to an American training ground in Germany to learn how to use new equipment and how to conduct what the American military calls combined arms maneuvers – using effective communications to coordinate forward forces with supporting units such as tanks and artillery.
Training on the tactic has gone well, according to multiple U.S. officials, and motivated Ukrainian forces have shown themselves to be quick learners. But adopting new tactics is often easier in training exercises than on the battlefield, especially with the Russians dug in.
Soldiers who fought in Ukraine say that, so far, sophisticated maneuver warfare has not been possible. They have struggled to coordinate operations because they require robust communications, which is difficult because radio equipment varies from unit to unit and is vulnerable to Russian interference. One soldier in Ukraine who took part in the failed offensive in southern Ukraine said any coordination above the level of a platoon – a unit of about 30 soldiers – remains extremely difficult.
If the Ukrainians succeed in using this new tactic, even to a small degree, they will be able to defeat the numerically superior Russian forces.
“If they can break through, then I think they can change the dynamic on the battlefield,” Adm. Christopher W. Grady, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in a short interview.
Key questions about Ukraine’s artillery and other ammunition supplies remain. Kyiv’s stockpile of air defense missiles and artillery shells, which are essential to maintain any pressure and to defend against Russian airstrikes, could be in jeopardy if its forces continue to expend ammunition at a rapid rate. After the attack is over, there is no possibility that the West will be able to recreate the buildup it did for a future attack on Ukraine, because the Western allies do not have enough supplies for the existing inventory and domestic production will not work. to fill the gap until next year, experts say.
The Ukrainian military has been firing thousands of artillery shells a day as it tries to capture Bakhmut, a pace that American and European officials say is unsustainable and could jeopardize future offensives. The bombing has become so intense that the Pentagon has alarmed officials in Kyiv, warning that Ukraine is wasting ammunition at a crucial time.
While Ukrainian forces can use drones to attack behind the Russian front line, they have not been given missiles with a range long enough to hit Russian logistics hubs, a tactic that proved important in last summer’s attacks outside Kharkiv and Kherson.
Russia has its own challenges.
From the beginning of the invasion, there were major doubts about the basic competence of the Russian commanders and the supply of trained soldiers, artillery shells and equipment. Russia has wasted many cruise missiles, lost thousands of people in Bakhmut and is wasting ammunition faster than it can be replaced by domestic production.
But Russia is working to bridge the gap. Russian forces have honed their ability to use drones and artillery to target Ukrainian forces more effectively. They recently started using glide bombs – which use gravity and basic guidance devices to hit targets without distraction – to show that they can still use the new weapon on the battlefield. The effort means the window to make significant gains against depleted Russian forces may not be open indefinitely.
In private meetings, Sergei K. Shoigu, Russia’s defense minister, has told other officials that he believes Russia has a numerical advantage on the battlefield because it has more planes, tanks, artillery and soldiers than the Ukrainians, according to senior Europeans. Officially aware of the discussion. In the conversation, Mr. Shoigu was confident that Russia would win.
American intelligence officials have repeatedly warned that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia thinks time is on his side. Given Russia’s greater reserves of equipment and manpower, officials say Mr Putin believes he will eventually win as the West’s appetite for supporting Ukraine wanes.
US and European officials say Russia is preparing a new mobilization movement to increase its military ranks without creating an exodus of youth from the country, which happened last year when a partial mobilization was announced. Some of the leaked Pentagon documents also describe how Wagner, Russia’s largest military contractor, restarted its recruitment force from Russian prisons.
American officials say Mr. Putin faces a political cost for any mobilization, and even if he is willing to bear the cost, Russia will need time to recruit the troops, train them and send them to war. Troops rushing to the front, like Wagner’s prison recruits, quickly became cannon fodder.
However, Russia’s capacity – and willingness – to absorb losses remains large, allowing it to deploy more troops. But some analysts have doubted whether Moscow has enough soldiers to fill the trenches being built on the front lines.
The main focus of the United States and the West has been trying to stop Russia from acquiring new weapons supplies. U.S. and NATO officials have clamped down on Russian domestic manufacturing with sanctions and export controls, and put diplomatic pressure on countries to reject Russian arms demands.
China appears to have been prevented, at least for now, from supplying Russia with ammunition or other lethal aid. US officials disclosed intelligence on Beijing’s private discussions with Moscow, and that they had not seen evidence that China had sent weapons. In addition, Russia’s efforts to acquire guided missiles from Iran have not borne fruit so far.
Another apparent success is Egypt. As U.S. officials quietly pressured Cairo to supply artillery shells to Ukraine, U.S. intelligence agencies gathered information, first reported by The Washington Post, that Egyptian officials may be supplying weapons to Russia.
After a diplomatic push by the United States and Britain, the Egyptians appeared to side with the Americans. According to subsequent intelligence reports, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt rejected the idea of Cairo providing the Russian side.
US officials said a production contract had been agreed with an Egyptian state arms manufacturer to produce artillery shells for the United States and an American contractor, which would be shipped to Ukraine.
Several European countries, including France, are pushing for negotiations. Now, Mr. Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, are in the dugout, and peace talks appear to be out of whack.
For the Ukrainians to force real negotiations, they must make sure that “Vladimir Putin’s hubris, arrogance, has been punctured,” William J. Burns, director of the Central Intelligence Agency, said in a speech at Rice University earlier this month.
Ukrainians say they won’t agree to any peace talks until they push Russia out and get more territory.
The likelihood that Mr. Putin will back down or cut his losses in response to a successful Ukrainian counterattack, a senior European official said, is “less than zero.” But, the official said, Mr. Putin would choose to call in more soldiers and send them in.
Celeste A. Wallander, the U.S. assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, said there was no sign that Mr. Putin was ready to compromise. “There is little evidence and no reason to believe that Putin will give up on his strategic goal of subjugating Ukraine politically, if not militarily,” he said in an interview. “This has been his goal, not just for a year, but for almost a decade. So there’s no sign of him giving up.”
Michael Schwirtz contributed reporting from Kyiv, Ukraine.
[ad_2]
Source link