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Given the current state of UK politics, it is surprising to remember that over two years ago, one of the main betting markets of the month LAB would have at least one pollster recording a lead.
Now even though the Tories have made a considerable recovery since last October, they still look far behind in the polls even though there is real hope that Sunak will get a good enough leadership rating.
The biggest thing for Labour, as we look ahead to the election, is the implosion in the SNP. Before GE2015 LAB held 41 of Scotland’s 59 seats. That has been removed and the prospect of LAB gaining 20 or even 30 Scottish seats should boost Starmer’s number 10 hopes.
But in terms of getting LAB a majority they have to take Tory seats. We will get a clearer idea of the prospects after the May 4 local elections.
Mike Smithson
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