NATO is getting ready to twist Canada’s arm on defence spending

As the old saying goes, there are some things that should never be discussed in polite company. Politics and money are usually at the top.

If you’ve ever been to a NATO leadership summit, you know these meetings are the epitome of polite company (with the exception of Donald Trump).

NATO leaders – at least in public – sometimes stay far, far out of the way to avoid criticizing other leaders and countries, especially those they perceive as not pulling their weight.

A military alliance that wants to present a strong front to the outside world is not necessarily hostile to any real or perceived signs of division.

However, there is one exciting moment at the 2019 NATO leaders’ summit that should be noted in the context of the storm cloud building during this year’s planned event in Vilnius, Lithuania. A bullish President Trump turned to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau – in full view of the cameras and after being asked about the adequacy of Canada’s defense spending – and asked, “So, what are your numbers?”

He questioned how far Canada would go from meeting the alliance-driven benchmark of spending two per cent of national gross domestic product on defence. Members of the Canadian delegation accompanying Trudeau, sitting to one side of the two leaders, began to rattle off numbers, some in conflict. (The consensus that they landed at that time was 1.39 percent of GDP).

It’s a made-for-TV moment that almost never happens in the kind of highly organized summit NATO is used to presenting.

As he welcomed US Secretary of State Antony Blinken along with the alliance’s newest member, Finland, to a regular meeting of foreign ministers this week, NATO Sec. General Jens Stoltenberg casually rolls verbal grenades on the floor as he talks about the agenda.

“We will also determine how to ensure that the allies invest enough in defense, and we will start preparations for the summit in Vilnius, where I expect the allies to agree to a more ambitious pledge, to consider 2 percent of GDP for defense not as defense. -the sky but the floor, the minimum, that we have to meet,” Stoltenberg said.

Canada has no plans to meet NATO targets

In late March, NATO published its annual report showing Canada’s defense spending was just 1.29 percent of GDP in the 2022-2023 fiscal year.

Not many are saying that Canada has no plans to meet that 2 percent target. None of this was the case when the previous Conservative government entered into the idea at the 2014 NATO leaders’ summit (when the alliance’s goal was to reach 2 percent by 2024).

The Liberal government’s 2017 defense policy revolves around that topic. Every time he has been asked about it, Trudeau and his ministers have bobbed and weaved and talked about what Canada has to offer in terms of capabilities.

The latest talking point is that Canada has the sixth largest defense budget in NATO and the country is one of the largest contributors to the alliance’s $4.8 billion general fund, a budget that pays for headquarters, joint operations and major construction investments.

Pressure on Canada to focus on funding its own military needs, as opposed to that of the alliance as a whole, has increased — especially since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year.

In a French-language speech in Montreal last Tuesday, French Ambassador to Canada Michel Miraillet expressed his country’s push for military spending and proposals for deeper European military cooperation.

A ‘weak defensive effort’

He suggested Canada should show the same commitment to global security.

“This is also for Canada and its defense efforts are weak, but rather forget the memory of past commitments, of the bravery shown in all major conflicts, as in peacekeeping operations,” Miraillet said in comments quoted by The Canadian Press.

In an interview with CBC News’ London office this week, Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly was asked point-blank about Stoltenberg’s statement that allies would consider the two percent benchmark a floor, not a ceiling.

He responded that Canada knows the world is changing with the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Indo-Pacific mean “we have to make sure we step up our game and what we’re going to do.”

“Stepping up our game” may be a relative term, as Joly later said that the government is involved in “a very important defense policy, which is necessary before announcing further investments.”

The defense policy review was announced in the 2022 federal budget. A year later, shortly after presenting its latest fiscal plan, the government announced there would be a public consultation on how best to defend Canada in an uncertain world.

The best-case scenario, according to some experts, is that the defense policy is delivered next year and the necessary investments are made at some unspecified point in the future.

In fairness, the Liberals have committed to spending $19 billion on new fighter jets, starting in 2026. They have agreed to put $4.9 billion into modernizing continental defense through NORAD.

But ahead of President Joe Biden’s recent visit to Ottawa, Americans expressed impatience with Canada’s habit of kicking defense spending down the road and publicly pushed for projects to move forward more quickly.

The Liberal government’s answer is to put a price tag on modernizing airfields and infrastructure to accommodate the new F-35s. However, the delivery time remains the same. The only project that could be launched quickly, according to defense experts, is an over-the-horizon Arctic radar station.

Two separate government sources said the issue of meeting the two percent defense spending target was not raised when Biden and Trudeau met.

America, it seems, has returned to polite corporate mode.

Asked this week on CBC Power & Politics on Canada’s defense spending, Sen. (D) Chris Coons is politely suspended.

“I think it’s a decision that Canada and Canadians have to make, but I’m comfortable that we have a close partnership, an alliance, that we’re moving forward to improve security,” he said.