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After months of pouring soldiers into eastern Ukraine, Russian advances actually add up: three small settlements and part of the city of Bakhmut, a famous battlefield of limited strategic value.
settlement taken by the Russians this year
A box of cities that Russia has captured this year so far
Compare that to what Moscow wants from today’s winter offensive: to capture the entire Donbas region – which contains dozens of other settlements, some larger than Bakhmut. To do that, Russia must reinvent and win a war on the scale of Bakhmut again and again.
Settlements in Donbas still controlled by Ukraine
A grid of Ukrainian cities still controlled in Donbas
Just 30 miles northwest
of Bakhmut, but many
bigger, with more than
twice before the war
population.
Pre-war population: 185,000
Reclaimed by Ukraine
in September after
four months below
Russian control.
On the front line of the war
near the city of Donetsk.
regular shelling has almost
completely destroyed the city.
Just 30 miles north west
Bakhmut, but bigger,
with more than twice the
population before the war.
Population before the war:
185,000
Reclaimed by Ukraine
in September after the fourth
month in Russia
check.
On the front line of the war
near the city of Donetsk.
regular shelling has almost
completely destroyed the city.
Population before the war:
185,000
Just 30 miles northwest of Bakhmut,
but bigger, with more than
twice the pre-war population.
Reclaimed by Ukraine in September after the fourth
months under Russian control.
On the front line of the war near the city
Donetsk. regular shelling has almost
completely destroyed the city.
Note: Population estimates according to the 2020 Statistical Yearbook of Ukraine.
Sources: State Statistics Service of Ukraine, Institute for the Study of War with Critical Threats Project of the American Enterprise Institute (control area) and OpenStreetMap (base map data)
The New York Times
A breakthrough for Russia seemed unlikely. Regardless of the outcome of the fierce battle of Bakhmut, Moscow’s inability to gain substantial ground in the Donbas shows how little its offensive has achieved and how much the military has struggled to efficiently occupy the city throughout the war.
After mobilizing hundreds of thousands of troops, Russia is no longer severely understaffed, as in the fall, when it lost a large part of the northeast in the surprise counteroffensive of Ukraine.
But even with more troops and firepower, the Russians, at best, could only advance by leaps and bounds, encountering well-prepared Ukrainian positions, protected by basements and buildings, with defensive lines strengthened from nearly ten years of fighting.
Map of the Donbas region showing areas held by Russia and Ukraine as of April 4, 2023.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War with the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (control area) and OpenStreetMap (base map data)
The New York Times
Ukrainians fought Russian-backed separatists in the Donbas region for a year before the full invasion in February last year.
A Russian offensive near the coal mining town of Vuhledar this year ended in defeat after Ukrainian troops attacked a disorganized tank column. Efforts to recapture the town of Avdiivka in recent weeks have not been successful, despite Russian attacks almost non-stop.
And tenacious Ukrainian defenses have withstood wave after wave of Russian attacks aimed at encircling Bakhmut, once home to some 70,000 people. The casualties on both sides have been enormous, but the land that changed hands is minuscule.
The front line
Russian front lines and movements around Bakhmut and Avdiivka as of March 31, 2023
Sources: Institute for the Study of War with the Critical Threats Project of the American Enterprise Institute (Area of control), Rochan Consulting (Movement of Russia) and OpenStreetMap (base map data)
The New York Times
Russia has struggled to regain its advantage because it is almost unstable after losses in the fall before launching a winter offensive, Michael Kofman, director of Russian studies at CNA, a research institute in Virginia, told the “War on the Rocks” podcast. last month.
“The Russian military does not have the quality of troops,” Mr. Kofman said. “There is not always ammunition. And it is not possible to replace junior leadership in a short period of time.
The progress of the Russian grind in Bakhmut has been led by the private military company Wagner, which has recruited tens of thousands of convicts from Russian prisons in exchange for the promise of freedom.
The long and bloody war for Bakhmut has reduced Wagner’s supply of prisoner recruits, according to Ukrainian officials, forcing the use of more professional recruits. Military analysts are skeptical that Russia could repeat the strategy of near-suicidal prisoner raids used in Bakhmut in Ukrainian cities.
The fighting has also come at a significant cost to Ukraine. The Ukrainian military is poised to launch a major counteroffensive this spring, and as it continues to try to capture Bakhmut, it has lost many of its combatants it could have used to attack. To the south, Kyiv will face a network of trenches, tank traps and minefields prepared by Russia itself.
Ukrainian forces also have to contend with a persistent shortage of ammunition. Western officials have expressed alarm at the rate at which Ukraine is depleting its artillery stockpile, firing thousands of cannons a day as it defends Bakhmut at all costs. Western manufacturers are ramping up production, but it will take months for new supplies to meet demand.
How Russian Progress in the Donbas Region Has Slowed Since the War Began
For Russia’s winter offensive that has successfully captured the Donbas at the end of March, the military must recreate the momentum it had at the beginning of the war, when it attacked Ukraine and captured large areas of the country. week, including scores of settlements in eastern Ukraine.
But within months of the invasion, Russia’s rapid progress stalled, despite its narrow ambitions and focus on eastern Ukraine. Despite the mobilization of hundreds of thousands of new recruits, the Russian winter offensive intensified.
Russian-captured settlements in the Donbas in the first week of the war
Russian troops poured into eastern Ukraine from the Russian border and crossed the front line established in 2014 by Russian proxy forces. Within a few days, they had captured several settlements.
Grid of cities captured by Russia in Donbas in February 2022.
in March 2022
The Russian offensive on Kyiv stopped, but Russian forces captured several settlements in the Donbas, mostly in the Luhansk region.
Grid of cities captured by Russia in Donbas in March 2022.
It sits on an important highway
which runs north to south
in Luhansk.
It sits on an important highway
which runs north to south
in Luhansk.
Sit on importance
the highway that runs
north to south
in Luhansk.
in April 2022
Russia withdrew from Kyiv, the capital, and prioritized demanding the entire Donbas region. But the slow progress in Mariupol is an early sign that the more modest goals of the war will prove difficult.
Grid of cities captured by Russia in Donbas in April 2022.
The blue cities have been recaptured by Ukraine.
Russia took control
most of Mariupol in April
after its artillery barrages
destroyed most of the city.
Russia took control
most of Mariupol in April
after its artillery barrages
destroyed most of the city.
The blue cities have been recaptured by Ukraine.
The Russians took control of most of Mariupol in April after artillery barrages destroyed most of the city.
The blue cities have been recaptured by Ukraine.
in May 2022
In the next few months, Russia looks set to succeed in the Donbas region. The troops were sent back from Mariupol and captured key towns such as Popasna and Rubizhne.
Grid of cities captured by Russia in Donbas in May 2022.
in June 2022
Russia continues its slow advance in Donbas. It captured major cities after repeating the kind of indiscriminate shelling that left Mariupol in ruins but in Russian hands.
A grid of Russian-captured cities in Donbas in June 2022.
After months of artillery fire, Ukrainian forces withdrew from Sievierodonetsk.
After months of artillery fire, Ukrainian forces withdrew from Sievierodonetsk.
After months of artillery fire, Ukrainian forces withdrew from Sievierodonetsk.
in July 2022
By early July, Russia had taken control of Luhansk, one of the two provinces that make up Donbas. But that was the end of the winning streak.
Grid of cities captured by Russia in Donbas in July 2022.
After victories at Rubizhne in the north and Popasna in the south in May, the Russians focused on Sievierodonetsk and neighboring Lysychansk.
Russian troops entered the city on June 25 and completed the capture in eight days.
Russian troops entered the city on June 25 and completed the capture in eight days.
Russian troops entered the city on June 25 and completed the capture in eight days.
in August 2022
Grid of cities captured by Russia in Donbas in August 2022.
in September 2022
Grid of cities captured by Russia in Donbas in September 2022.
in October 2022
Grid of cities captured by Russia in Donbas in October 2022.
in November 2022
In Zaitseve, near Bakhmut, Russia made its final gains in Donbas in 2022, along with retreating from the city of Kherson in southern Ukraine.
Grid of cities captured by Russia in Donbas in November 2022.
in December 2022
Grid of cities captured by Russia in Donbas in December 2022.
in January 2023
The Russians launched a winter offensive with attacks in many areas of the eastern front, but their only success was the capture of a small settlement near Bakhmut.
Grid of cities captured by Russia in Donbas in January 2022.
The Russians captured a small salt mining town. Months of fierce artillery warfare had devastated many Soledars.
The Russians captured a small salt mining town. Months of fierce artillery warfare had devastated many Soledars.
in February 2023
Russian forces attempted to surround Bakhmut to the north and south, capturing the village of Krasna Hora in the process. Ukraine succeeded in holding off Russian attacks elsewhere in the Donbas.
Grid of cities captured by Russia in Donbas in February 2022.
in March 2023
Russian forces continue to advance towards Bakhmut, but Ukrainian forces still control some parts of the western part of the city.
Grid of cities captured by Russia in Donbas in March 2022.
Area still
controlled
by Ukraine
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