As war between Israel and Hezbollah escalates, life in Lebanon poised to get ‘uglier day by day’

For a second consecutive night, Lebanon braced for a new wave of Israeli air attacks.

The pounding overnight Wednesday, particularly in Beirut’s southern suburbs, was the largest array of firepower the Middle Eastern country has seen in this 12-day-old war, which started when the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28 and assassinated its supreme leader.

Two days later, the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel, pulling Lebanon back into a major conflict with Israel.

Israel launched the punishing counter-offensive after Hezbollah and Iran co-ordinated an onslaught of 200 rockets fired into Israel on Wednesday evening. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard confirmed the joint attack, believed to be the first in the renewed war between Israel and Hezbollah.

“It’s obvious who is in charge and who is giving the orders,” said Khalil Helou, a retired brigadier-general in the Lebanese army and a geopolitical analyst, referring to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Iran.

Almost two weeks into this war, the conflict in Lebanon is quickly escalating and expanding into more regions of the country.

“They fired 200 missiles from Lebanon and about 20 drones, heavy missiles and other short-range missiles into Israel,” and it was a combined mission, Helou said in an interview with CBC News in Beirut.

800,000 displaced in Lebanon

The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) on Thursday expanded its evacuation orders, nearly doubling the “red zone” territory in southern Lebanon and ordering citizens to move north of the Zahrani River, 40 kilometres from the Israel-Lebanon border.

“The Israelis, they have the upper hand,” Helou said, noting that Israel has tripled its troop positions inside southern Lebanon over the last two weeks, to 18 from five.

“This operation [in Lebanon] will not be short,” said Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir, chief of the general staff of the Israel Defence Forces. “We will bring additional troops and capabilities to the north…. We continue moving forward.”

Nearly 700 people have been killed and an estimated 800,000 have been displaced from their homes as Lebanon struggles to house them, according to Lebanese authorities.

At a shelter in Beirut, Rabiaa, who uses just her first name, stood outside her tent holding a birdcage. She said she couldn’t leave her birds at home when she fled southern Lebanon under Israeli airstrikes five days ago.

“I support this war because the resistance [Hezbollah] is protecting us. If it weren’t for them, we would be finished,” she told CBC News. “Look what Israelis did in Gaza…. Do you think they’ll fall short with us?”

Only  a week ago, Beirut residents believed the capital would be spared from airstrikes outside of traditionally strong Hezbollah neighbourhoods in Dahiyeh, the southern suburbs. But four times in 10 days, drones have penetrated specific targets in the heart of the city.

Early Thursday morning, a massive boom shook the Corniche, a popular promenade along Beirut’s seafront. A drone attack with at least three rockets hit the Corniche, according to a Lebanese security source.

It was targeting a car carrying a senior Hezbollah operative, the IDF said, a statement confirmed by Hezbollah. Eight people were killed and at least 30 injured, shaking the security of Lebanese living in the city core.

A building in Bachoura in central Beirut was hit on Thursday afternoon, killing a Hezbollah military commander, according to Israel, as the IDF announced it had begun a new wave of airstrikes across Beirut.

Israel has ‘the upper hand’

“I think it’s going to get uglier day by day and very intense. We had the taboo of not touching or not bombing inside Beirut. It’s gone now,” said Ali Hamade, a political analyst and columnist with Lebanon’s An-Nahar newspaper in Beirut.

“Now it will be routine. You might have a bombing or a targeted assassination by the Israelis anywhere in the country and in the capital.”

But Beirut’s international airport remains open, and there have been few if any attacks on infrastructure such as water supplies and electricity — largely because the U.S. has secured assurances from Israel that it will not bomb the airport or critical infrastructure and that this battle is not with Lebanon, only Hezbollah, Hamade said.

“They, the U.S., are thinking about the day after,” he said, explaining that it doesn’t want a failed state in Lebanon.

But the government is “a spectator” in its own country, Hamade said.

On Monday, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun asked for international support to mediate direct talks with Israel, a proposal that Israel rejected.

“They are spectators. They are trying to do their best — the government; Nawaf Salam; the prime minister, President Aoun — they are trying their best, but it’s not enough,” Hamade said.

“That’s why Israelis are not talking to the government. They don’t feel the urge to talk to them. Even Washington is preferring not to listen to what the government has to say, because they feel, we heard, that it’s empty promises.”

Hamade added: “You can promise me the moon, but you cannot deliver.”

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz warned Lebanon’s leaders on Thursday that if they do not stop Hezbollah’s rockets, “we will take the territory and do it ourselves.”

At the moment, there seems little room to manoeuvre any kind of a ceasefire.

“The one who decides the ceasefire is Israel, they have the upper hand,” and Israel will not ask for a ceasefire, Khalil Helou, the retired brigadier-general, said.

“The U.S. is backing Israel, and the U.S. considers Hezbollah a major threat for U.S. interests,” he said. “So why would the United States ask for a ceasefire for Hezbollah in times like this?”