Rishi Sunak will on Monday claim he has negotiated “fundamental” changes to Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit trading regime as he seeks to end the bitter row that has engulfed Britain’s relationship with the EU.
The British prime minister and Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, are expected to seal a deal to reform the Northern Ireland protocol in Windsor after months of diplomacy.
Von der Leyen will also meet King Charles separately, adding to his excitement over what British insiders are calling the “Windsor deal”. Sunak hopes the deal will build momentum in UK-EU relations.
Sunak will then begin the daunting task of selling the reforms to pro-Brexit Tory MPs and to Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist party, with a statement to parliament scheduled for Monday afternoon.
British officials claim Sunak has secured “fundamental” reforms to the protocol, as part of Boris Johnson’s 2019 Brexit deal.
They say the agreement will fix concerns over trade friction in travel goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland and what local politicians have called a “democratic deficit”, giving people a say in the new EU rules in the region.
Two people familiar with the deal said the revised settlement, which runs to more than 100 pages, is an “implementation agreement”.
Brussels will have to make some changes to existing EU law – as it did last year to resolve the issue of access to generic medicines for Northern Ireland – in order to implement the changes.
“It is a fix that will allow the EU to say ‘we have not reopened the text of the deal’, but the UK can say ‘we have won the legal material changes to the package’,” one insider said.
Among the proposed changes is a pet passport derogation that would allow UK residents to take their dogs into Northern Ireland without a microchip and pet passport as if they were traveling to the EU, as required.
The EU is also expected to soften its stance in areas other than claims that make residents of Northern Ireland feel restricted in the UK’s internal market – for example, around receiving parcels from Great Britain through the post.
Another area officials are confident will be resolved is the spat over steel quotas that prompted HM Revenue & Customs to warn British manufacturers last August that some steel products would have to pay a 25 percent tariff when shipped to Northern Ireland.
The UK’s decision to provide full data transparency to the EU, along with the construction of border control posts at Northern Ireland ports, is expected to open up a radical simplification of the process required for UK traders to ship products to Northern Ireland.
It is expected that those who register their products through the trusted trader scheme and label their products for “NI-Only” consumption will not be required to provide customs and animal health certification at the border, although full details of the scheme have not yet emerged. .
Britain will say the package represents a significant increase in the functioning of the trade border in the Irish Sea that Johnson agreed as part of the original Northern Ireland protocol deal in 2019.
Another problem for Sunak may be convincing the DUP and hardline Brexiters in his own party that the deal resolves the constitutional issues raised by the protocol.
Officials acknowledged that the agreement would not remove EU law or the European Court of Justice’s jurisdiction from Northern Ireland, which remains part of the single market for goods, as demanded by Brexit hardliners.
Insiders on both sides indicate that Brussels has not moved substantially in the role of the ECJ in implementing the protocol, although the UK is expected to argue that the number of EU laws enforced will effectively be reduced.
Also, the deal will not meet the DUP’s demand for a dual regulatory regime in the region, with manufacturers able to choose to apply UK standards, rather than EU rules, for exports to the UK market.
The protocol also requires the UK to refer decisions on subsidies or “state aid” that could affect Northern Ireland’s goods trade market to Brussels. Insiders say this will remain, but only the biggest decisions require referrals.
The deal will also include a system to improve the level of consultation with the Northern Ireland Assembly on new EU rules and regulations that apply to the region.
However, the consultative mechanism, which is expected to be similar to that enjoyed by Norway as part of a deal to implement EU single market legislation, will not be a veto.
Sunak hopes the deal will eventually persuade the DUP to rejoin Stormont’s power-sharing executive, which it boycotted in protest at the protocol’s operation.
But the prime minister is also targeting a larger prize for improved relations with the EU, including scientific collaboration, and warmer relations with US president Joe Biden, who has expressed concern over the Northern Ireland issue.