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It’s always nice to wake up to a 6/1 winner so before I spend my winnings here’s my thoughts on the by-election result
- This was the worst result for Labour, they are in danger of being pincered senseless on their flanks, they have to come up with policies that simultaneously appeal to Green and Reform voters, that could be a challenge.
- Despite Reform’s divisive rhetoric, thousands of Muslims voted for a party led by a gay Jew man, if that doesn’t scream integration, I don’t know what does. I predict the Faragist right will struggle to deal with this, Elizabeth Kübler-Ross is your friend.
- This confirms by-election polling is difficult, the two polls that were worth looking had it as a three horse race, in reality it wasn’t that close.
- Like in Caerphilly turnout was much higher than you’d expect for a by-election, I think this is further proof that voters will come out to stop a Reform victory.
- The Tory vote cratered again, so much for Kemi Badenoch’s improving ratings, the government is polling on a par with the Liz Truss era, why aren’t the Tories doing better?
- The result pressages a truly terrible night for Labour and Conservative in May’s elections…
- …which means Starmer and Badenoch could face further questions about their leadership.
- Reform might be able to mobilise activists size isn’t important, they are reminding me more and more of Corbyn’s tenure as Labour leader where Corbyn lost two general elections in a row.
- The NEC was right to block Andy Burnham, even if he had won last night Reform could have won the subsequent Greater Manchester Mayoral election which would have much more serious ramifications.
- I was less than a 0.9% swing away from a 100/1 winner in this by-election, this is immensely frustrating.
TSE
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