Rishi Sunak enters a tense week as Boris Johnson tilts at leadership

good morning There were decades when nothing happened. Then there are the weeks when the decade happens. With perfect timing, my holiday coincided with one of those weeks. My apologies (and thanks!) to Jude, Jen, Miranda, Robert, Chris, Lukanyo, and George for filling me with such happiness. Some thoughts on some of the aftershocks on record today.

Can’t take my eyes off the EU

The best news for Rishi Sunak is that the UK economy may be more resilient than feared. As James Kanagasooriam notes in his smart (and free) newsletter, while the headline polls look close to apocalyptic for the Conservative party, the pattern in the other five indicators shows defeat more like the results of the 2010 general election, where the Tories failed. won a majority, rather than the defeat the Conservatives experienced in 1997.

Of course, the Conservatives hope to recover despite the defeat on the scale of 2010 depending on the British economy showing signs of resilience and economic recovery stronger than expected today.

Sunak’s next important political challenge will come if – or, when – he reaches an agreement with the EU on the Northern Ireland protocol, which could happen as soon as tomorrow. Another big issue won’t be immediate, but it will be in the next few days, as we see the start of Boris Johnson making another tilt at the Conservative leadership. The former prime minister intervened in the Brexit dispute yesterday, warning Sunak that it would be a “big mistake” to scrap the Northern Ireland Protocol bill, which would have allowed ministers to unilaterally cancel the 2020 Brexit deal with the EU.

In essence, the only way Johnson can become prime minister again is if he can reach his core supporters in the parliamentary party and again become the consensus choice among the nervous MPs in the marginal seats, as happened in 2019. which improves the prospects of Sunak who can talking to a straight face that remains the best hope for the Tory party bad news for Johnson, and good news for Sunak.

I couldn’t take my eyes off Yousaf

Scottish health secretary Humza Yousaf and former minister Ash Regan are the first two candidates to officially announce their candidacies in the Scottish National party leadership election (read scene-setter William Wallis if you haven’t already). Kate Forbes, the cabinet secretary for finance and economy who is on parental leave, is expected to announce she will enter the race. Nominations close on Friday, after which voting among more than 100,000 SNP members will open at midday on March 13. It closes at noon on March 27.

Although the figure of 100,000 is extraordinary for a country the size of Scotland by modern standards, as Tim Bale pointed out in the Times last week, SNP members seem to be expecting it.

Like the Conservative, Labor and Liberal Democrat parties, members are mostly middle class, over 40 and male. As with Labor and the Liberal Democrats, the membership is more liberal than the country.

Although I have no quantitative evidence of this, my general impression from talking to the party’s rank and file is that members will place a high premium on loyalty. So I think Ash Regan will struggle, after he resigned as minister in protest against the Scottish government’s proposed gender recognition reforms. The reason for Regan’s resignation will be more important in shaping how members react to his candidacy than the bare facts.

Given the social liberalism of the party, I Kate Forbes, a conservative evangelical who has said that the treatment of the “unborn” is a “true measure of progress”, will struggle as well.

Any half-competent politician running against him should be able to make an election-losing issue. So, Yousaf looks like the candidate to beat – unless the other candidates throw their hats into the ring.

Now try this

I really enjoyed visiting my cousins ​​in New York and Philadelphia. I am indebted to them, both for giving us a place to stay, but also for the suggestion that we try to get rush tickets at the New York Philharmonic.

The amazingly renovated David Geffen Hall is a masterpiece. The cost of the renovation was one of the topics John Gapper touched on in his excellent column on orchestra economics this weekend.

Says John Gapper: 2011 “Lunch with the FT” Interview with the head of Starbucks Howard Schultz is still proud Place in the window at Barney Greengrass, a good deli in Manhattan. John’s piece is a great read, but I think Schultz could have been a better dining companion by pointing him to the latkes.

Top story of the day

• Call to fire Scottish business | The Scottish government should use the departure of first minister Nicola Sturgeon as an opportunity to reset the troubled relationship with business, said a former adviser to the administration of the Scottish National party.

• UK energy support puts companies ‘at an internationally competitive disadvantage’ | British businesses face a cliff edge in energy costs in April as the introduction of a weaker government support package pushes up bills, trade bodies and analysts have warned.

• AI tools in Reach | Newspaper publishers Daily Mirror and Daily Express are exploring whether ChatGPT’s artificial intelligence chatbot can help journalists write short news stories, as media organizations look at ways to use AI.

• Domestic abuse is down | The most dangerous domestic abusers will be more closely monitored and electronically flagged as part of a government crackdown. Violence against women and girls is now categorized as a national threat for the first time, the BBC reports.