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As Lord Ashcroft can attest constituency polling is very difficult but assuming the poll is largely right, then I think the value is with Plaid Cymru, they are 2/1 in what is a 50/50 race.
There’s also plenty of votes on the left for them to squeeze, I can see Labour getting squeezed to single digits which is some achievement as they polled 46% in 2021. The only team to have a worse record in Wales recently than Labour is the men’s national rugby union team.
TSE
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