Peter Obi and those Onitsha-market polls, By Fredrick Nwabufo

The Nextier Poll is not worth a breath of worry, really. It is quite flawed in conception, and design. The preconceived agenda is obvious. Political propaganda through questionable opinion polls. The poll is no different from the quotidian tallying of goods by Onitsha market traders.

Propaganda, lies, and fraud have always been tools of war. In World War II, Germany carried out and spread the most widespread, yet unprecedented, propaganda in history. For the Germans, the idea was to defeat the enemy psychologically, and thus, secure victory on terra firma. The most dangerous war is the war of the mind.

Politics, usually, does not have to be war. But in a system of constant collision of interests like ours; it’s very sad. The weapons of political warfare are physical and subliminal. The battle is waged in the minds of voters long before Election Day.

A recent Nextier poll, which considered a dubious electoral gain for Peter Obi, the Labor Party’s presidential candidate, was the asymptote of political witchcraft. Polls mean subterfuge, ruse, gambit, artifice; it is a serpentine machination through and through.

The Nextier 2023 presidential election survey, like previous ANAP polls, is a deliberate fabrication for political gain. The poll seeks to achieve its stated objectives: (1) endorse Peter Obi as the people’s candidate; (2) to exaggerate the electoral value of Peter Obi; (3) to create a siege of choice and chaos if the results of the presidential election reflect a different candidate; and (4) to prejudice the election with the impossibility of fait accompli.

Nextier said it used “144 enumerators to poll 3,000 respondents in all states in Nigeria” to determine the projections. This is clearly flawed and not extensive – because it leaves more room for error than stated by the pollster.

According to Nextier projections, survey respondents in all Southeast states; in four of the six states in the Southwest; in six countries in the South-South, and in two countries in the North-Central preferred Peter Obi as president of Nigeria. The poll also reflected a good performance for Peter Obi in the North-West and North-East. This is ludicrous. The survey clearly understates voting behavior across the country, demographics, as well as sociological and ethnological influences among voters in the zone.

The Nextier Poll is completely useless. It is quite flawed in conception, and design. The preconceived agenda is obvious. Political propaganda through questionable opinion polls. The poll is no different from the quotidian tallying of goods by Onitsha market traders.

There have been threats of open violence by Peter Obi’s supporters if he loses the election. This poll, which makes a mockery of reality, objectivity and common sense can be ammunition for what is to come if the election does not go the way of the “Obidients.”

There should be a ceiling for propaganda. When election impossibilities are sold as certain results by established pollsters, the risk is ominous. There is nothing dissuading the thought that “Obidients”, known to be choleric and unthinking in the delusion of a certain victory do not unleash themselves on the nation.

There are concerns that the country could experience another uprising due to #EndSARS violence due to the presidential election results. It is dangerous to give hope where there is obviously no chance; it is foolish to create dreams that cannot be realized. It is not wise to hold on to illusions, believe and live. The only way out of this phantasm is asylum.

As I mentioned in my previous column, Peter Obi is not planning to run for president. If he has any plans to run for president, he won’t be free to go through an endless tunnel of gaffes and inchoate ideas. But the truth is that he has no plans to run for president. There was an accident.

Peter Obi’s presidential bid is a political freak; contrived idea for performance and political quota. The offer is perhaps only relevant for regional emphasis and for anger by part of the youth.

Obi’s offer did not come out of pressure to fix Nigeria or to make changes in the country; it is just a response to scheming in PDP. He was drafted out of the loop by a party known for his treason. Peter Obi never planned, planned, or envisioned becoming president. The presidential offer is a ruse and a ploy to get back at the PDP who declared themselves politically responsible.

Running for president takes intention; it takes years of planning; build a network of people and structures. It’s not what happened or what you voted for as a protest against the plans of your party.

Peter Obi did not run for president to win, “Obidients” should know this; he just wants to make a trenchant statement, and perhaps build a bottom to secure political value-ship. If they really run to win, they will start to form alliances and build the cross-zonal network that they needed years ago.

“Obidients” must give up chasing will-o-the-wisp; be realistic and measure expectations.

Fredrick Nwabufo; Nwabufo aka Mr OneNigeria is a media executive.