ANALYSIS: Race to Kashim Ibrahim House: Inside the battle for 2023 Kaduna governorship

March 11 gubernatorial election Kaduna StateNorth-western Nigeria, perhaps the keenest in recent times.

Kaduna is one of the 28 states where governorship elections will be held on that date. According to INEC figures released recently, the country has about 4.3 million registered voters.

The country is strategic because it is considered the political capital of the North. It used to be the capital of the Northern region, which has been divided into 19 countries. As a result, interest in internal politics spread far beyond its borders.

Since its creation in 1967, Kaduna has had 20 governors, nine of whom were democratically elected and the rest were military officers. Katsina State was part of Kaduna State until 1987 when it was divided by the military administration of President Ibrahim Babangida.

Since 1999, Kaduna has been governed by five elected governors.

1999

The 1999 election was direct. Nigeria has just returned to democracy after a long period of military rule. Many people were not interested in the dispensation that arose at that time and therefore did not pay attention to the transition in the country.

Ahmed Makarfi became the first state governor of the Fourth Republic with an overwhelming victory in the election. He was elected to the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in 1999 and re-elected in 2003.

Interestingly, in 2003, a close political ally, Suleiman Hunkuyi, defected to the defunct All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) and ran against his former leader, but lost.

2007

In 2007, Namadi Sambo was elected as governor. He is the current governorship candidate, Mr. Makarfi.

About three years into his tenure, Mr. Sambo was appointed vice president following the death, in May 2010, of President Umaru Yar’Adua and the emergence of Goodluck Jonathan, his deputy, as president.

2011

Mr. Sambo was replaced by his deputy, Patrick Yakowa, who went on to win the 2011 gubernatorial election.

Mr. Yakowa, from Southern Kaduna, defeated his nearest opponent, Haruna Saeed of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), to retain the position.

Mr. Yakowa was the only Christian among the governors who led the country since 1999. However, he died in a plane crash in December 2012 and Ramalan Yero, his deputy, was promoted to the highest political position in the country.

2015

Mr. Yero, also from the PDP as his predecessor, was convincingly defeated by Nasir El-Rufai in the 2015 governorship election. Mr. Yero had been governor for over two years when he lost.

Mr. El-Rufai was elected governor under the All Progressive Party (APC). His reign came with change and controversy. He is a man loved and hated by many in Kaduna State.

His administration renewed and expanded the country’s Infrastructure and is considered one of the most successful governors in the country’s history in terms of infrastructure. But many, especially Christians in the country, see him as a divisive leader.

2019

The country is deeply divided along ethnic and religious lines.

Until the 2019 elections, the country has an unwritten tradition that if the governor is Muslim, the representative will be Christian and vice versa.

However, that year, Mr. El-Rufai, a Muslim, broke with tradition when he chose a Muslim woman, Hadiza Balarabe, as his running mate and later deputy governor. Between 2015 and 2019, Bala Bantex, a Christian, has been his representative.

2023

How to stand the candidate

The stage is now set for another election when Mr. El-Rufai completes his second term in office on May 29.

The 2023 gubernatorial contest promises to be challenging and fierce. A total of 17 candidates have been cleared for election with four considered to be the main contenders. The top candidate did not give any chance to win the support of the people of the country.

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APC has Uba Sani, a senator, as its candidate while Isah Ashiru is the PDP flag bearer. The other main contenders are Jonathan Asake of the Labor Party (LP) and Mr. Hunkuyi of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP).

Analysts and observers of political developments in Kaduna State, however, believe it will be a two-horse race between Messrs. Sani and Ashiru.

Mr. Sani

It is a common opinion that Mr. Sani will ride on the achievements of the incumbent, Mr. El-Rufai, a member of the APC, to power. However, it will not be an easy ride. He has to fight with the people who are suffering with the policies of the outgoing governor.

Many people in Kaduna believe that Mr. El-Rufai is very harsh on his transformation agenda in the state. Many people have lost their livelihoods due to the destruction of their homes and the renovation of markets in the country.

Also, some are of the opinion that government development projects are not spread across the country because they are only in three big cities, namely Kaduna, Zaria and Kafanchan. Local communities are neglected. Probably, in every campaign gathering, Mr. Sani promises the public to be careful.

However, what can be counted on for the Kaduna Central senator is his promise to reverse some of the governor’s controversial policies, if elected, such as the sacking of some traditional rulers.

Mr. Sani is also said to have a big war chest for the election contest, all of which makes him the candidate to beat on March 11.

Isa Ashiru

Mr. Ashiru is not new to the Kaduna governorship contest. In 2019, as a PDP candidate, he lost to Mr. El-Rufai. This time, he promised to crush Sani, Mr. El-Rufai’s anointed candidate.

Mr. Ashiru seems to enjoy the support of most people who are angry with the APC government in the state.

A grassroots politician since 1999, he understands the problems of the people, especially those who live in villages and hinterlands. This, he believed, gave him an advantage.

Mr. Ashiru said he would review the policies of Mr. El-Rufai’s administration, keep those he considers good and discard others.

Hunkui, Asake

In that segment, Messrs. Hunkuyi of NNPP and Jonathan Asake of LP are considered by many to be spoilers in the race. No one has started a serious campaign beyond posters and showing some presence on social media. These activities seem to benefit PDP candidates.

Although Mr. Hunkuyi is a grassroots politician, he is not believed to have the necessary funds to tackle serious challenges. Also, his party, NNPP, is relatively new and unpopular in the country.

Mr. Asake is quite popular in Southern Kaduna where he is a community leader. However, people in the area often vote for PDP and Mr. Asake’s popularity may not change that. Moreover, little is known about them in the more populous north of the country.

What people say

Hassan Lawal, a political analyst and commentator in Kaduna, believes that the election will be fiercely contested as it will not be influenced by the incumbency factor.

“I believe what the people want is what will be done in the upcoming gubernatorial election. You know it will be a new government and the advantage of incumbency is gone, so I think Kaduna people are determined,” he told PREMIUM TIMES.

Hawwa Magani, another resident, shared these views, saying the election would be difficult, especially since Mr. El-Rufai and President Muhammadu Buhari were absent from the polls.

“This time, we will have a fierce election. I say this because the incumbent governor will not be in the Ballot and even Buhari,” he said. “People are not very happy with the continuity slogan of the APC candidate. They want a change in the party and the style of government. So it will be a big fight.”

Another resident, Umar Mamman, said, “Yes El-Rufai is doing well in the country. Some people feel that they should have someone like Uba Sani to consolidate all these achievements. I will not say that he will win, but it is more likely.