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The populations of Japan, South Korea and now China are shrinking which, demographers say, is a threat to the economic and social stability of these countries.
All three tried to reverse course. South Korea is expected to loosen labor laws in a bid to spur family growth, while Japan’s prime minister said he wants to double spending on child-related programs, among his efforts. The situation is urgent, Fumio Kishida told lawmakers on Monday, after Japan’s birth rate fell below what is needed to save the economy. He warned that it was important to fix the problem “now or never.”
China, meanwhile, sees its population drop – for the first time in 60 years – by 850,000 in 2022, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
In a sharp reversal of the one-child policy, Beijing is now proposing a three-child policy in hopes of averting a demographic crisis.
But demographers say encouraging people to have more children, given the economic and social pressures parents face, is a tough sell. Many women are reluctant to have many children, mainly because of the cost of education and the prospect of adding offspring to their list of responsibilities while also caring for aging relatives and taking care of their own careers.
Parents there say the family needs help.
“Nowadays many people don’t want to have children if they can’t provide them with a good education,” said Wei Chao, a 31-year-old mother of twins who lives in Shanghai, last week.
Feminist researcher Yige Dong – an assistant professor of sociology and global gender and sexuality studies at the University of Buffalo – says “unreasonably high costs” are the biggest reason people don’t become parents.
To encourage parents, some villages in China are offering cash bonuses to couples who have babies, according to the New York Times.
An agricultural technology company in northern China is reportedly offering the equivalent of US$14,124 and up to 12 months of extra leave for female staff – and an extra nine days for males – to families expecting a baby.
All on women’s shoulders
But this pressure to procreate is pushing a generation of better-educated women wary of the personal costs of parenthood, Dong said, noting that in China, family chores and care are often left to women.
“Women are now more aware of the opportunity cost of getting married and having children, which means you’re going to get a lot of punishment from work,” she said.
Demographers say the one-child policy – which from 1980 to 2015 tried to prevent overpopulation – created a gender imbalance, with 722 million men compared to 690 million women, leading to fewer families in recent years.
It also accidentally ended leaving one child responsible for the aging of his parents and in-laws; The “sandwich generation” cares for up to two sets of older siblings.
“All these expectations and responsibilities are placed on women’s shoulders,” said Yue Qian, a sociology professor at the University of British Columbia.
Grandmothers used to be the main caregivers in Chinese society, but this is changing, said Diana Lary, a Chinese historian retired from the University of British Columbia.
As the couple also have children later, some grandmothers have chosen not to take that in the traditional role, she said.
“It’s a terrible dilemma. You can say people have become selfish, but people, especially women, really don’t want to have more children,” said Lary.
“Parents would rather have a respectable child than risk having two or three.”
Falling birth rates create social disruption
Japan has one of the lowest birth rates in the world relative to population, recording less than 800,000 births among approximately 125 million people in 2022. At the same time, more than 90,000 of its citizens are 100 or older.
Kishida said the country was “on the brink of not being able to maintain its social functions” due to its shrinking tax base and labor force.
South Korea recently broke its own record for the lowest fertility rate in the world. Women there will, according to November 2022 data, have an average of 0.79 children – far from the 2.1 demographers say ensures a stable population of the country, if the death rate remains stable.
China also offers everything from better maternity leaves to tax breaks. In October 2022, Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to “raise the birth rate” by easing economic pressure on families and expanding elderly care programs and services.
Lary predicted China would consolidate its economy, but said society would be “very disturbed” as the number of families fell.
Demographers say that changing the trajectory of baby-making will take more than extending the maternity leave and using pot-bangers to shout slogans like “The three-child policy is good!” as was done in Hebei province, according to The Economist.
It will take social change, and a stab at stubborn gender inequality, he said.
Eliminate inequality
Qian says gender inequality is a deep-seated reason why fertility rates are rising.
“We need to change that, but not just ask women to change. We need to think about ways to encourage men to change,” Qian said, adding time to the question of how Chinese fathers can be more involved and share housework.
“Encourage men to change and make their families and lives more compatible,” Qian said.
Efforts should also be made in the workplace, so that pregnant women and men on parental leave do not lose opportunities, he said.
Qian also said that the family’s concept of family should be more.
China’s national family planning policy does not explicitly state that unmarried women cannot have children, but defines motherhood – for support purposes, benefits or even the right to freeze eggs for fertility procedures – as married, she said.
“There is a very narrow picture of the ideal family.”
Dong said, for him, it is not a shock that China’s population growth is stagnant, given the stress on people.
“It’s like – you deserve it, don’t you? [First] with the strict one-child policy and now the cost of living is only going up. If you don’t take care of people’s needs, then people will just stop wanting to have a family or raise children.“
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