Mining output decreased by 9% compared to November 2021, and 0.4% compared to October due to reduced load.
According to Statistics SA, the reduction in output is quite extensive with significant declines recorded in platinum group minerals (PGM), iron ore and diamonds.
Mineral sales also registered their fourth consecutive decline in November, with seasonally adjusted mineral sales at current prices down 10.4% month-on-month.
Prof Jannie Rossouw, visiting professor at Wits Business School, said load shedding was certainly responsible for the decline in mining output and the full impact would be seen across the economy.
The biggest negative contributors to the annual decline were PGMs (-22% and contributed -5.9 ppt), iron ore (-19.4% and contributed -2.1 ppt) and diamonds (-21.5% and contributed -1 ppt).
The decline in seasonally adjusted mining production in November followed a 3% decline in October compared to September, while the annual production decline followed an 11% decline in October compared to October 2021.
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To be expected
Economic research group Oxford Economics Africa said the decline was in line with expectations of a modest improvement, but the contraction was deeper than the market consensus forecast of a 6.9% decline compared to 2021.
November was also the 10th consecutive annual decline in mining production.
Additionally, seasonally adjusted mining production fell 1.9% in the three months ending November 2022 compared to the previous three months, while mineral sales at current prices fell 9.8% over the same period.
Load shedding can affect GDP
The group said that if load shedding occurs sporadically during the last months of 2022, a significant recovery in output is unlikely.
“Additionally, the impact of poor commodity prices continued, with mineral sales at current prices down to R61.1 billion, 15.2% lower than November 2021.”
While manufacturers regained ground in November, the group said mining performance so far in the fourth quarter had been disappointing. This is bad news, as the sector will weigh on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the last quarter of 2022.