Betfair have this market on whether the Joe Biden will be impeached before the election. What I like about this bet is that the terms are very clear
If the House of Representatives pass at least one article of impeachment then the President is deemed impeached.
The outcome of any subsequent Senate trial will have no bearing on settlement
If Joe Biden is not impeached before 5/11/2024 then No will be settled as the winner.
If Joe Biden dies before impeachment is passed or the election day this market will be voided.
For this bet to be a winner if doesn’t require a conviction in the Senate, now House couldn’t organise an impeachment against a cabinet secretary this month I suspect they will not be able to do so against Biden given the revelations this week, backing no in this market, which represents a near 10% return in fewer than 9 months could be a good strategy.